Motivating unlikely voters to vote

Since most of the recent polls are sampling likely voters, the impact of turning out unlikely voters looms large.  The fact that the Obama campaign was able to convince many unlikely voters to participate in the 2008 election makes turnout even more important.

Generally, in recent elections, the presidential candidate that turns out the most members from their own party wins, as the following table demonstrates.

Year	Republicans	Democrats	Advantage	Total voters	Percent of voting age population
1992	39%	40%	D +1	104,405,155	55.23%
1996	35%	39%	D +4	96,456,345	49.08%
2000	35%	39%	D +4	105,586,274	51.30%
2004	37%	37%	Even	122,295,345	55.27%
2008	32%	39%	D +7	132,645,504	57.48%

The table shows that the exception to this rule in recent presidential elections was in 2000 when George W. Bush scored a controversial victory over Al Gore.  In that election, hanging chads in Florida enabled Bush to barely win the contest.


Bush also won in 2004, a year in which Republicans came out in equal numbers to Democrats.  President Barack Obama won by a landslide in 2008, a year that witnessed the highest voter turnout since 1968.


Obama leads among all registered voters
In almost all polls that take into account all registered voters, Obama leads and often by a significant margin.  The trend is particularly strong in the battleground states.  The polls that are making headlines now are mostly surveying likely voters. Some only show opinions for those who say they are certain to vote.


What we know from 2008 is that the Obama team is capable of registering new voters and of turning out irregular older voters.  They do this using a massive ground army combined with excellent planning and organization. 


If we look at the available metrics, Obama is doing as good or better as in 2008, and he is beating out the current GOP opposition in 2012:

• Campaign field offices -- Obama has more than twice as many field offices and the disparity is even wider in some important swing states, For example, the Obama team has more than three times as many field offices in Ohio than does the Romney camp.
• Voter registration -- Obama has beat out their highly successful 2008 registration drive even as some states are still accepting new registration forms.  Compared to the Republicans in 2012, Democrats lead in voter registration so far in the battlegrounds states of Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania.  Republicans lead only in Colorado and New Hampshire.  Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin do not register according to party.
• Non-midterm voters -- In nine battleground states, Democrats exceed Republicans in early votes cast by people who did not vote in the 2010 election.  The current lead is 19.7 percentage points. 
• Overall early vote -- Among all voters, the Democrats currently maintain a 10.7 point lead.  Republicans lead in only two battleground states -- Florida and Colorado -- but those leads should vanish once in-person early voting gets rolling in both states. Additionally, Democrats are doing a better job in beating out Republicans as compared to the statistics from 2008, especially when it comes to absentee/mail ballot requests.
• Crowd size -- Obama still looks to be drawing the larger crowds at rallies although Romney is doing better than he was previously. For example, after the last debate, both candidates appeared in Denver with Obama drawing 16,000 supporters compared to 12,000 for Romney.
• Social media and Internet activity -- Obama is still way ahead in terms of official website activity.  In social media, Obama is also well out in front although Romney's team is trying hard to catch up.  An ongoing paid ad campaign by Romney on Facebook is beefing up the number of subscribers to his page.

Managing Election Day and long lines

While early voting can account for more than 50 percent of voting in states like Florida, in most areas, Election Day still garners the bulk of total votes.

The Obama campaign must deal with strong official and volunteer efforts to suppress voting in areas that favor the president.  Unfortunately, many people procrastinate and wait until after work on Election Day to vote.  Lines can get very long in some areas. 

According to surveys, about 20 percent of registered people who do not vote claim long lines as their excuse. 

The Obama team can try to convince more of these people to vote early or to, at least, vote in the morning or during the lunch break on Election Day.  Otherwise, they need to organize at the polling places to make sure that things run smoothly. 

Rapid response teams can go to precincts with very long lines and provide relief, entertainment and snacks along with running interference if any "truthers" show up.

Voting begins in early states

Mail voting via absentee ballots is already underway in North Carolina with Virginia set to offer these ballots on Friday.

Most states have early in-person voting periods or no-excuse absentee ballot voting periods.  Indeed, 24 states and the District of Columbia have both early voting and no-excuse absentee ballot voting periods.

Only 15 states provide no early voting period and only allow absentee voting when the voter has an excuse, for example, when they are living abroad. These states are:

1. Alabama
2. Connecticut
3. Delaware
4. Kentucky
5. Massachusetts
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi
9. Missouri
10. New Hampshire
11. New York
12. Pennsylvania
13. Rhode Island
14. South Carolina
15. Virginia

For this week, while North Carolina allows no-excuse absentee voting, Virgina requires that voters have a valid excuse. 

The presidential campaign teams will encourage their supporters to vote as early as possible.  Once the ballot is cast it is like "money in the bank."  Other votes are still up for grabs and they are vulnerable to unfavorable developments including the well-known phenomenon of the "October surprise."

At the same time, the campaigns will wage last-ditch persuasion efforts to win early votes from independents.

For information on early voting and absentee voting in your state, visit gottavote.com/.

Is Romney on the retreat?

The news that Mitt Romney and the Republicans are pulling their TV ads out of Pennsylvania and Michigan was not that surprising.  However, the report that they are also withdrawing from Wisconsin was more of  a shock.

Romney has consistently polled poorly in Pennsylvania although Obama is still below 50 percent when you average out recent surveys.  Romney does better in Michigan polls, at least on the surface.  However, voting results in both Pennsylvania and Michigan depend a lot on what happens in the urban areas. 

The Philadelphia and Detroit metro regions in PA and MI respectively can dramatically alter outcomes in favor of Obama if there is good turnout in these areas.  Most experts believe that the Obama team will be able to rally supporters in these cities although maybe not to the extent they did in 2008. Additionally, Romney is vulnerable to an attack on his auto industry position in Michigan.

Wisconsin though is a different cookie.  Given that this recent ad decision came on the heels of the Republican National Convention, it makes one think that there were some benchmarks that they did not meet. Possibly, these were in relation to the expected convention "bounce."

Meta-analysis of past polling data, internal polling and reports from the field may have also had an influence on their decision to go on the defensive.  Republicans and their super-PACs will concentrate their resources instead in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

That really limits their potential paths to victory in the presidential race.  What is obvious here is that if the other swing states go to Obama, the Republicans will need to win Florida to prevent an Obama victory.  Even winning Ohio and the other six states will not get them to the required 270 electoral votes if they lose Florida.

What, if anything, should the Obama campaign do in response to the latest GOP moves?

They could decide to take the Republicans head on in Florida since that's a must win state for them.  However, that could end up sucking up a lot of money.  Florida is the most expensive swing state and it is also one of the toughest for Obama according to the polls.

Another strategy would be to concentrate in states that offer more of an opening for Obama.  For example, if Obama could win Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia, that would give him 279 electoral votes so long as there are no surprises in other states.  Obama is polling best in those four states out of the eight that the Republicans are currently fighting in.

While they should maintain their current efforts in the other four states, they could pull some, but no all, of their resources from states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and redirect them into those battlefields. 

With two months remaining, we should continue to see both campaigns make significant strategic moves to adjust to a constantly changing electoral environment.

Organizations, endorsements ramp up for Obama

Organizations and celebrities are activating to assist President Obama's election campaign.  The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) will be spending about $85 million to help Obama in eight battleground states:  Pennsylvania, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Maybe even more important than the money is the number of volunteers that SEIU will be able to deploy for the campaign effort.

Today, MoveOn.org announced that it was endorsing the president and that it would "invest significant time and resources into mobilzing people power to win the election adn prevent a hostile takeover by the 1%."   The organization claims that 91 percent of its members who vote approved the Obama endorsement.  MoveOn says that it has seven million total members.

A big personal endorsement came from Spanish TV talk show host Cristina Saralegui who is known as the "Hispanic Oprah."  A Cuban American, her support may be particularly important in swing state Florida, which has a large Cuban and Caribbean community.

Expect these types of endorsements to increase in frequency as the election nears. Will try to post updates as they come in.

Romney wins New Hampshire primary

Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary with Ron Paul coming in second and Jon Huntsman in third place.

The outcome was not unexpected giving Romney's wide lead in the polls. All attention will now turn to South Carolina, which has acted as a litmus test for nominee candidates in recent times.




Campaign manager Jim Messina lays out the various paths that President Obama can take to win the presidential election in November.

Obama touts economic growth

President Barack Obama pushes Republicans to help him grow the economy after favorable reports in the job market showing brisk growth.

In the GOP primary race, prominent conservatives are calling for voters to rally around a single conservative candidate to prevent Mitt Romney from gaining too much momentum.

The New Hampshire race is Romney's to lose, but he should face a very tough contest in South Carolina. If conservatives to rally together, they can beat Romney in the southern state, and that could turn the whole primary around.

Many candidates are PACs are reportedly launching negative TV ad campaigns targeting the former Massachusetts governor.


Apply to become an Obama Organizing Fellow!




GET STARTED

GOP primary candidates to meet in CNN debate

Republican presidential hopefuls will be meeting in a CNN-sponsored debate tonight in New Hampshire.

Two recent polls show that Mitt Romney is leading the pack of present contenders with Sarah Palin close behind.

President Obama has no serious challengers on the Democratic side.

Obama campaign mobilizes, GOP still gun shy

The Obama 2012 campaign is now on even though the Republican hopefuls are still mostly not ready to commit to their candidacies.  Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the only one of those considered as serious contenders to file an exploratory committee.

Against a tough incumbent like President Obama, one would think that prospective candidates would like to get started early especially in the fundraising department.

Earlier polls have shown Obama is leading in the important swing states and the most recent PPP polls in Florida and New Hampshire continue the same trend.  Only Mitt Romney seems to pose a threat although a lot can change by election time in November 2012.

The GOP state polls show Romney leading in New Hampshire with Donald Trump close behind.  Mike Huckabee was ahead in Iowa and South Carolina although those polls did not include Trump in the field of candidates.

A more recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Mick Huckabee and Donald Trump tied at the front of the GOP pack.  Trump though has not performed well in polls matched against Obama.

Trending Topics and Searches on Election Day

Polls are already open in many parts of the country. 

For those on Twitter, several election-related topics are currently trending including #govote, #electionday, "Election Night" and "Democratic Party."   The Washington Post is also sponsoring the topic #election.

On Google, hot searches are related to people apparently trying to find out where to vote.  The only hot topic in the top 10 is "California elections."











Note that these states allow voter registration on Election Day: Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Wyoming and Washington DC.

To find polling locations, visit this URL:

http://pollingplaces.raiseyourvote.com/

Good night for Democrats

Last night was a good one for the Democrats as Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell won the Republican nomination over the establishment pick.  Tea Party favorite Ovide Lamontagne also looked strong in New Hampshire where he is close behind former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte despite the latter spending about four times as much money.

In addition, Tea Party pick Carl Paladino defeated Rick Lazio in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Although many have compared the Democrats current situation with that of Bill Clinton when Democrats lost control of Congress during the midterms, it's actually the GOP that is the divided party these days.   When the Dems lost back then, blue dogs and yellow dogs -- the conservative and progressive wings of the party -- were going at each others jugulars.


Today, it is the Republican Party that is in disarray and in the midst of a civil war.  That is not to say that the Democrats do not face challenges in November.  Voters are basically ready to get out incumbents, and there are more Democratic incumbents than Republican.

However, voters may not like the idea of voting into power a party that is so divided, and associated with folks who make even Karl Rove cringe.


Again, the key for Democrats is getting their voters to the polls, and also winning over swing voters.  Remember that in every election there are people who do not make up their minds until the last minute. A well-organized field campaign can help motivate Democratic voters and help last-minute voters make the correct choices.

Polls show Democrats need lots of work

According to the various election 2010 polls that are summarized on realclearpolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/latest_election_polls.html), the Democrats look in trouble come this November.

For example, according to their analysis of polls for the Senate races, right now it looks like the Democrats could lose four seats or more.

Senate 2010 Polls

TOSS UPS
Colorado: Bennet (D)
Missouri: Open (R)
Ohio: Open (R)
Pennsylvania: Specter (D)

LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arkansas: Lincoln (D)
Indiana: Open (D)
Kentucky: Open (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Open (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)

LEAN DEMOCRAT
California: Boxer (D)
Illinois: Open (D)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Delaware: Open (D)
Florida: Open (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT
New York: Gillibrand (D)
Washington: Murray (D)
Wisconsin: Feingold (D)

SAFE REPUBLICAN
North Dakota: Open (D)

SAFE DEMOCRAT
Connecticut: Open (D)

The situation looks similar for the House although I doubt that the Democrats are in danger yet of losing control of the House.

Now, these polls may be a function of a couple of problems for the Dems.

For one, progressives and conservatives in the party have been locked in battles over several issues but particularly over healthcare reform. What this has caused is a peculiar situation when people from both the left and the right (Republicans) are hammering the Democratic Party.

Now should the health bill pass soon (knock on wood), then maybe this tension between Dems could simmer down. The recent compromise by Rep. Dennis Kucinich is a good sign in this direction.

I doubt if climate change legislation will be as controversial within the party itself, and I hope that not too much friction arises in the efforts to reform the education system.

Anyway, if things calm down before November the Democrats can reunite to battle for seats in Congress.

Obama's commerce pick faces hearing

President Obama's choice for commerce secretary faces confirmation hearings today before the t before the Senate Commerce Committee.

Former Washington state Governor Gary Locke said he would back tough enforcement of US trade laws if confirmed.

"More than free trade, though, I believe in fair trade. That means we must enforce our trade agreements and place a high value on environmental, labor and safety standards," Locke said in prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing.

"We must look over the horizon and prepare for the new economy that will emerge when the recession passes. Simply put, we must rebuild, retool and reinvent our national strategies for sustained economic expansion."

Locke is Obama's third choice for U.S. commerce chief after New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg both withdrew their nominations.

Locke served two terms as governor from 1997 to 2005 and has since worked for a Seattle law firm on international trade issues. Locke is of Chinese American descent.

Reuters

Obama commerce pick vows strict trade enforcement

Reuters - ‎54 minutes ago‎

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Washington state Governor Gary Locke said on Wednesday he would insist on tough enforcement of US trade laws if confirmed by the Senate to lead the US Commerce Department.

Blog: Reporter Scott MacFarlane, Covering Locke Confirmation Hearings KIROtv.com

Locke faces Commerce confirmation hearing KNDO/KNDU

Obama likely to select Gov. Locke as commerce secretary

President Barack Obama is likely to pick former Washington Gov. Gary Locke to be his commerce secretary, CNN reported Monday.

Locke, 57, became the first Chinese-American to be elected as governor of a state in 1996, and he was re-elected in 2000.

Obama's first two choices for commerce secretary both withdrew their nominations. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was the first choice before he resigned due to a corruption investigation. The president then selected New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, a Republican, who also eventually withdrew citing policy differences with Obama and pressure from within his party.

BBC News

Obama likely to tap Locke for commerce, sources say
CNN - 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Barack Obama's pick for commerce secretary is likely to be former Washington Gov. Gary Locke, two administration sources told CNN Monday.
Officials: Obama Likely to Tap Former Washington Gov. Locke for ... FOXNews
'Likely' US Commerce chief named BBC News

Three Times: Barack's Tax Cuts for the Middle Class

Obama for America announced today that it is releasing a new 30 second television highlighting Barack's tax plan.

Unlike Sen. McCain whose plan gives the greatest share of tax cuts to big corporations, Sen. Obama's proposal will give middle class families three times the McCain tax cuts. Hence the TV ad is named "Three Times."

About 100 million Americans will receive no relief at all from McCain's tax proposal.

Three Times will air in Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia beginning today.

You can watch the ad below, provided by Barack's official YouTube site.

Obama Addresses National Security Issues in DC

Ahead of a major address by Sen. Barack Obama on his policy on Iraq, Afghanistan and other national security issues, the campaign released a new TV ad highlighting the senator's work on stopping the smuggling of nuclear weapons.

The ad titled "America's Leadership" will air in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

The selection of states for this ad might give some indication of which states the Obama campaign is targeting as battleground areas.



Read the text of Barack's address "A Strategy for A New World" as prepared for delivery in Washington DC today.

Targeted States: Nevada

Nevada is truly a swing state that both Al Gore and John Kerry lost by narrow margins. Gore last by four points in 2000 and Kerry by three points in 2004.

An average of current polling shows that Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the state, but McCain is winning a larger number of the surveys.

Nevada is logistically a rather simple state. A very strong grassroots operation in the Las Vegas metro area alone could be enough for victory. Reno, the second largest city in Nevada, is in many ways a carbon copy of Las Vegas with the casino industry and labor unions as dominant factors.

Although one would expect labor to vote strongly Democrat, Al Gore only picked about half the union vote in 2000.

The state has a Republican governor and senator, and a Democratic senator, Harry Reid. The Nevada Assemby is ruled by Democrats, while the State Senate is controlled by Republicans.

Here is the polling data from RealClearPolitics:

Nevada: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	02/26 - 06/18	--	43.3	43.3	Tie
Rasmussen	06/18 - 06/18	500 LV	45	42	McCain +3.0
Mason-Dixon	06/09 - 06/11	625 LV	44	42	McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA	02/26 - 02/28	611 RV	41	46	Obama +5.0

See All Nevada: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Frank Sinatra, once a Democrat who turned Republican, is still an icon in Las Vegas, Reno and Lake Tahoe. And a lot of the Democrats here are rather soft in this way, hardly to be taken for granted as supporting the Democratic nominee.

The Latino vote here is also very important. Latinos are the largest minority in the state. Hillary Clinton could be very helpful to Obama in securing this important voting bloc.

A Review Journal poll shows that the economy is easily the ranking issue among Nevada voters followed by Iraq and energy costs. Many people here, especially in Las Vegas, were hit hard by the mortgage meltdown.

Neighboring California can play a big role in winning Nevada. The Golden State can provide volunteers to work in Nevada, but that will require a strongly-entrenched local grassroots organization.



Hillary in Unity, New Hampshire.

Live Video: Barack and Hillary in Unity, New Hampshire

Check out the live feed from Unity, New Hampshire where Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are rally supporters.



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Obama, Clinton in Unity

Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will appear today in Unity, New Hampshire where they fought to a tie in the primary to promote a unified general election effort.


Sen. Hillary Clinton, left, and Sen. Barack Obama leave
Washington on Friday to fly to New Hampshire for a
rally (CNN).

Barack has asked his big money fundraisers to help retire Clinton's primary debt, and Clinton is urging her bundlers to support Barack's presidential campaign.

As expected, there was some talk about the possibility of an Obama-Clinton ticket. Terry McAuliffe, Clinton's primary campaign manager said: "I think if she were on the ticket I think we honestly ... would control the White House for 16 years. But Sen. Obama's got to make that decision himself. He's got to do what he thinks is in the best interest of the campaign and country."

"Whatever he decides to do, whatever role for Hillary, she is ready to go. And she will do whatever they ask her to do in the fall campaign."

Battleground States

The focus of the Obama campaign is swinging toward choosing which states to target in November.

Although grassroots operations, including offices, will continue in all states, certain battleground states must be selected where the candidate will spend most of his time, where the most resources and the "A-team" staff personnel will be allocated.

These battleground states are those known as "swing states," where the vote is considered on the borderline between the two candidates.

I've analyzed the potential battleground states based mainly on polls, number of electoral votes per state, demographics, and the general enthusiasm and organization of the campaign in those states that I've witnessed. This analysis though is tentative because polls are still quite early.

The base of voters that participate in the primaries is different than that of the general election. Many more people should turn out for the latter. Many of these folk probably have not tuned in much yet, and polls will only reflect their name recognition of the candidates. As they begin to more closely examine the candidates, their choices can change quickly and often.

I'm dividing the battleground states into three categories: 1) States to Win Over, 2) States to Defend, 3) Other Battleground States.

The States to Win Over are those where Obama must go on the offensive to win. States to Defend are those where Barack looks strong, and must basically defend his position. The other states are more difficult and/or do not carry sufficient electoral votes. I would probably have the candidate spend from 50 to 80 percent of the time in the first category states with similar resource allocation, and divide the rest of the time and resources between the next two categories. Other states would only be visited for the occasional fundraiser and to keep the troops happy.

The states are listed in order of priority with the number of electoral votes for each state in parenthesis.

States to Win Over

1. Ohio (20)
2. Michigan (17)
3. Wisconsin (10)
4. Missouri (11)

States to Defend

1. Pennsylvania (21)
2. Colorado (9)
3. Iowa (7)
4. New Jersey (15)
5. Oregon (7)

Other Battleground States

1. Virginia (13)
2. New Mexico (5)
3. Nevada (5)
4. Florida (27)
5. New Hampshire (4)
6. North Carolina (15)
7. Georgia (15)

Now again, my opinion on these states could change depending as the situation is quite fluid.

Of course, there are a number of other states where Barack stands a chance of pulling upsets like Louisiana, Kansas, etc., and grassroots efforts there should be supported. Maybe these states will come into play later on during the campaign.

Barack Obama picks up four superdelegates

Barack Obama added four more superdelegates today reducing the number of delegates he needs to win the nomination to 58.

Congressman Dennis Cardoza of California, a former Clinton supporter, announced his support for Obama today: “While I continue to greatly respect and admire Senator Clinton and feel she has made history with her campaign, I believe that Senator Obama will inevitably be our party’s nominee for President. He has proven himself to be a thoughtful, knowledgeable, and inspirational leader and will take America in a new direction, which we desperately need."

Obama's campaign also announced the endorsement of California congressman, Jim Costa.

Two former supporters of John Edwards from New Hampshire, State Senator Peter Burling of Cornish and Deborah Nelson of Hanover, plan to announce their switch to Obama at a news conference this morning, the Associated Press reported.