Tuesday, June 26, 2007

How much money does Obama need?

With the second quarter nearly at an end, how much money will Barack Obama need to fund his campaign?

Recently, Joe Trippi, the former Howard Dean guy now working for John Edwards, said that Edwards will need $40 million to pursue a four state strategy targeting Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That would average out to about $10 million a state, although the actual share used for each state could vary widely.

Because Edwards is not able to raise the same kind of money as Obama and Clinton, the hope is that a good showing in the early states will attract new money and supporters for Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5, 2008.

If we use the figure of $40 million also for the Obama effort in the four early states, they will probably raise that much and more by this quarter.

That would mean that the next two quarters and the five weeks in the first quarter of next year could presumably be used to raise money for Feb. 5.

There could be 20 states including heavyweights like California and New York participating in Super Duper Tuesday also pegged as "Tsunami Tuesday" for its potential to shape the 2008 primary election.

If Obama can raise at least $20 million in each of the next two quarters and then maybe another $10 million in the first five weeks of 2008, he can have about $50 to $60 million for Tsunami Tuesday.

On the high end that would average out to about $3 million a state although certainly the campaign would look to target the states with the most potential. California alone can easily eat up $20 million in a statewide race.

However, if Obama does well in the four early states before Feb. 5, he could vastly increase his monetary, organizational and grassroots support. The momentum of the early states often acts as "king-maker."

One could say that a reasonable goal would be about $4o-50 million for the four early states, and a reserve of $40-60 million for Tsunami Tuesday, not counting any money raised during or after the early state voting.

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