Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Obama focusing in on Iowa and New Hampshire

Barack Obama has been running tv ads in Iowa for some time now. Those ads are probably at least partly responsible for his recent favorable poll showing in that state.

Obama is hoping to win or do very well in Iowa to boost his campaign but some analysts wonder if there is enough time between Iowa and New Hampshire to make a difference.

The campaign recently announced it would begin running tv ads in New Hampshire also so it seems they are expanding now to a two-state strategy.

Television in Nevada and South Carolina may be just a month or two away. Up to now, Obama has spent nearly $2 million in ads next only to Bill Richardson among Democrats, the latter spending about $2 million. However, unlike Richardson, Obama has concentrated his air time in Iowa.

I still feel South Carolina will make or break the Obama campaign. If he can do well in the first three states and win South Carolina, he has a good chance on Super Duper Tuesday. Things would look very grim, on the other hand, if he loses South Carolina.

Obama really needs the black vote now as I believe he has lost a lot of Iraq War opponents this quarter. If he can win South Carolina, it could signal that black voters have come to believe in him as a candidate.

That could tip the scales in a number of states on Super Duper Tuesday and possibly also in Florida, which is also holding early polls. His supporters would be highly motivated after winning a big primary before Feb. 5 when as many as 20 states will vote for a Democratic candidate.

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