Scoping Ohio (and Indiana)

Since I made my last analysis of battleground states, it still looks like Ohio is the most important of these targets. And a new state can be added to the list -- Indiana.

Indiana is sandwiched between Ohio and Obama's home state of Illinois, and it would be relatively easy to reach both Ohio and Indiana from the main campaign headquarters.

The race in Ohio still looks very tight and I think the campaign has a better chance there than in Florida, although that could change. The Democratic governor in Ohio compared to Florida's Republican governor is very helpful. Both states had some significant voting irregularities in the last two presidential elections.

Ohio is close enough to Illinois for road trips by dedicated Obama volunteers as well as paid staff.

Northwest Indiana is part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. People regularly commute between both places especially from Indiana into Chicago for work. Given that Obama's ground support is likely strongest in his home state of Illinois, it is very practical to spill over into Indiana and make a run at this usually Republican-leaning state.

In both states, Obama will have to reach out to very similar populations consisting of working class people who have been hit hard by recent economic woes. Evan Bayh is a good possible VP choice for targeting Indiana, while Gov. Ted Strickland would be logical for Ohio. Hillary Clinton and her husband are very popular with the swing voting segment in these states.





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Gov. Mark Warner to deliver Convention Keynote Address

Some possible insight today in the choice of former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner to deliver the keynote address on Aug. 26 at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Virginia is one of the main battleground states, where both candidates have been battling in the polls. There are about 11 other states that are viewed as "toss-ups" at the current time.

Here is the campaign statement released today.

MARK WARNER TO DELIVER CONVENTION KEYNOTE ADDRESS ON TUESDAY, AUG. 26th

CHICAGO - The Obama for America campaign announced today that former Virginia Governor Mark Warner will deliver the keynote address at the 2008 Democratic Convention on Tuesday, August 26th, the second night of the Convention.

An innovative businessman known for his ability to work with Republicans, Democrats and Independents, campaign officials said that Warner's vision for Virginia and his leadership style echoed the Convention's theme of Americans coming together for change.

"Barack Obama believes you can't have a strong economy when you have a weak middle class," said Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe. "Millions of Americans are struggling to get by, forced to make impossible choices about their future and the future of their families. Tuesday's Convention program will feature the voices of Americans who share Obama's concerns and strongly support his detailed economic plan to grow the economy, create jobs, restore fairness, and expand opportunity. As Governor of Virginia, Warner used his experience in business to help deliver jobs and hope to the citizens of Virginia. His work creating jobs in Southwest and Southside Virginia is a model for the rest of the Country. Like Barack Obama, Mark Warner is not afraid to challenge the status quo to bring people together and get things moving. It's that kind of spirit and innovation that resulted in his selection as keynote speaker on a night when we will be discussing how to renew America's promise."

Warner, a candidate for the United States Senate in Virginia, will speak on Tuesday night of the Democratic Convention. The theme of Tuesday's night program at the Convention is Renewing America's Promise.

20 field offices open in Virginia

One can tell a lot about the Obama campaign's focus on battleground states by observing the buildup of resources in each of these states.

In Virginia, the campaign has opened 20 new field offices, a clear sign of how important that state will be in the general election. There will be much work on voter registration and volunteer recruitment leading up to the official start of the campaign after the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Here is a Flickr slide-show of the office-opening events in Virginia.




The ground campaign will work in concert with online efforts, and Barack Obama addressed the Netroots Nation gathering in Texas last week.

Battleground States

The focus of the Obama campaign is swinging toward choosing which states to target in November.

Although grassroots operations, including offices, will continue in all states, certain battleground states must be selected where the candidate will spend most of his time, where the most resources and the "A-team" staff personnel will be allocated.

These battleground states are those known as "swing states," where the vote is considered on the borderline between the two candidates.

I've analyzed the potential battleground states based mainly on polls, number of electoral votes per state, demographics, and the general enthusiasm and organization of the campaign in those states that I've witnessed. This analysis though is tentative because polls are still quite early.

The base of voters that participate in the primaries is different than that of the general election. Many more people should turn out for the latter. Many of these folk probably have not tuned in much yet, and polls will only reflect their name recognition of the candidates. As they begin to more closely examine the candidates, their choices can change quickly and often.

I'm dividing the battleground states into three categories: 1) States to Win Over, 2) States to Defend, 3) Other Battleground States.

The States to Win Over are those where Obama must go on the offensive to win. States to Defend are those where Barack looks strong, and must basically defend his position. The other states are more difficult and/or do not carry sufficient electoral votes. I would probably have the candidate spend from 50 to 80 percent of the time in the first category states with similar resource allocation, and divide the rest of the time and resources between the next two categories. Other states would only be visited for the occasional fundraiser and to keep the troops happy.

The states are listed in order of priority with the number of electoral votes for each state in parenthesis.

States to Win Over

1. Ohio (20)
2. Michigan (17)
3. Wisconsin (10)
4. Missouri (11)

States to Defend

1. Pennsylvania (21)
2. Colorado (9)
3. Iowa (7)
4. New Jersey (15)
5. Oregon (7)

Other Battleground States

1. Virginia (13)
2. New Mexico (5)
3. Nevada (5)
4. Florida (27)
5. New Hampshire (4)
6. North Carolina (15)
7. Georgia (15)

Now again, my opinion on these states could change depending as the situation is quite fluid.

Of course, there are a number of other states where Barack stands a chance of pulling upsets like Louisiana, Kansas, etc., and grassroots efforts there should be supported. Maybe these states will come into play later on during the campaign.