One can tell a lot about the Obama campaign's focus on battleground states by observing the buildup of resources in each of these states.
In Virginia, the campaign has opened 20 new field offices, a clear sign of how important that state will be in the general election. There will be much work on voter registration and volunteer recruitment leading up to the official start of the campaign after the Democratic Convention in Denver.
Here is a Flickr slide-show of the office-opening events in Virginia.
The ground campaign will work in concert with online efforts, and Barack Obama addressed the Netroots Nation gathering in Texas last week.
Showing posts with label targeted states. Show all posts
Showing posts with label targeted states. Show all posts
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Obama Addresses National Security Issues in DC
Ahead of a major address by Sen. Barack Obama on his policy on Iraq, Afghanistan and other national security issues, the campaign released a new TV ad highlighting the senator's work on stopping the smuggling of nuclear weapons.
The ad titled "America's Leadership" will air in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.
The selection of states for this ad might give some indication of which states the Obama campaign is targeting as battleground areas.
Read the text of Barack's address "A Strategy for A New World" as prepared for delivery in Washington DC today.
The ad titled "America's Leadership" will air in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.
The selection of states for this ad might give some indication of which states the Obama campaign is targeting as battleground areas.
Read the text of Barack's address "A Strategy for A New World" as prepared for delivery in Washington DC today.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Targeted States: Missouri
John McCain is leading in most polls out of Missouri, but just yesterday the Obama campaign tripled their staff presence in the Show Me State.
Obama for America announced it has 150 paid staffers in the state to direct the Illinois senator's army of volunteers. The total exceeds the combined peak numbers of both John Kerry who had as many as 80 Missouri staffers and George W. Bush who had up to 50 in the last presidential election.
"We have started really ramping up on the staffing, we're going to start to open offices across the state and we're really excited to talk with the people here," Debbie Mesloh with Obama For America said.
George W. Bush beat both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 in Missouri. Indeed, a Democrat hasn't won Missouri since 1964.
Missouri has a Republican governor, Matt Blunt. In both 2000 and 2004, the governor was a Democrat. There is a Republican senator and a Democratic one, the latter being early Obama supporter Claire McCaskill.
McCaskill has been a very active campaigner for Obama and often appears on national news coverage representing the campaign.
The Missouri state legislature, both the assembly and the senate, are dominated by Republicans.
Despite the strong Republican presence in the state, there was one very good sign for Obama that occurred during the primary. A total of 824,453 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, compared to 584,618 for the Republicans.
In comparison, in 2000, 44% more Republicans voted in the primary than Democrats. Also, in the most recent statewide election, McCaskill was able to unseat an incumbent Republican possibly indicating weakening support for the party.
Efforts by the Obama campaign and the DNC to register and activate Democrats in the state are reported to be bearing fruit. So much so, that incumbent Republican Gov. Blunt has decided not to run for reelection.
Obama for America announced it has 150 paid staffers in the state to direct the Illinois senator's army of volunteers. The total exceeds the combined peak numbers of both John Kerry who had as many as 80 Missouri staffers and George W. Bush who had up to 50 in the last presidential election.
"We have started really ramping up on the staffing, we're going to start to open offices across the state and we're really excited to talk with the people here," Debbie Mesloh with Obama For America said.
Missouri: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread RCP Average 06/20 - 07/07 -- 49.0 44.0 McCain +5.0 Rasmussen 07/07 - 07/07 500 LV 50 45 McCain +5.0 PPP (D) 07/02 - 07/05 723 LV 47 44 McCain +3.0 SurveyUSA 06/20 - 06/22 543 LV 50 43 McCain +7.0 Rasmussen 06/03 - 06/03 500 LV 42 43 Obama +1.0 SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 1523 LV 48 45 McCain +3.0 Rasmussen 05/06 - 05/06 500 LV 47 41 McCain +6.0 SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13 542 RV 50 42 McCain +8.0 Rasmussen 03/24 - 03/24 500 LV 53 38 McCain +15.0 SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 536 RV 53 39 McCain +14.0 SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 632 RV 48 42 McCain +6.0 Rasmussen 02/11 - 02/11 500 LV 42 40 McCain +2.0 SurveyUSA 01/11 - 01/13 562 RV 51 40 McCain +11.0 SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 547 RV 44 47 Obama +3.0
George W. Bush beat both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 in Missouri. Indeed, a Democrat hasn't won Missouri since 1964.
Missouri has a Republican governor, Matt Blunt. In both 2000 and 2004, the governor was a Democrat. There is a Republican senator and a Democratic one, the latter being early Obama supporter Claire McCaskill.
McCaskill has been a very active campaigner for Obama and often appears on national news coverage representing the campaign.
The Missouri state legislature, both the assembly and the senate, are dominated by Republicans.
Despite the strong Republican presence in the state, there was one very good sign for Obama that occurred during the primary. A total of 824,453 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, compared to 584,618 for the Republicans.
In comparison, in 2000, 44% more Republicans voted in the primary than Democrats. Also, in the most recent statewide election, McCaskill was able to unseat an incumbent Republican possibly indicating weakening support for the party.
Efforts by the Obama campaign and the DNC to register and activate Democrats in the state are reported to be bearing fruit. So much so, that incumbent Republican Gov. Blunt has decided not to run for reelection.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Targeted States: Virginia
Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election except 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won, since 1952. The state voted for George W. Bush over both Al Gore Jr. and John Kerry by a little over eight percent of the vote.
However, the state is in play for Barack Obama in 2008 according to most pundits. During the primary, we saw a significantly large number of Democrats voting as compared to Republicans.
Virginia has a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, and its first Democratic senator since 2001 in Jim Webb who beat incumbent George Allen in 2007. Webb's campaign platform included opposition to the Iraq War.
The Virginia State House of Delegates is ruled by Republicans while Democrats dominate the State Senate.
McCain has a slight lead according the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, but Obama has won three of the four most recenty surveys.
Both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have been suggested as possible running mates for Barack Obama, and both will be very helpful in helping him contest the state of Virginia.
Obama might also benefit from the fact that evangelicals, a powerful force in Virginia, are far from excited about John McCain, who has sparred with evangelicals in the past.
Virginia has a large African American population, and, for a southern state, a surprising large number of people who oppose the Iraq War. Large turnout among both groups could decide this state.
However, the state is in play for Barack Obama in 2008 according to most pundits. During the primary, we saw a significantly large number of Democrats voting as compared to Republicans.
Voter turnout during 2008 Virginia Primary
973,931 (D)
475,484 (R)
1,449,415 (Total)
Virginia has a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, and its first Democratic senator since 2001 in Jim Webb who beat incumbent George Allen in 2007. Webb's campaign platform included opposition to the Iraq War.
The Virginia State House of Delegates is ruled by Republicans while Democrats dominate the State Senate.
McCain has a slight lead according the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, but Obama has won three of the four most recenty surveys.
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama
Both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have been suggested as possible running mates for Barack Obama, and both will be very helpful in helping him contest the state of Virginia.
Obama might also benefit from the fact that evangelicals, a powerful force in Virginia, are far from excited about John McCain, who has sparred with evangelicals in the past.
Virginia has a large African American population, and, for a southern state, a surprising large number of people who oppose the Iraq War. Large turnout among both groups could decide this state.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Targeted States: Wisconsin
Wisconsin was the scene of two cliffhangers in 2000 and 2004.
In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by just two-tenths of a percentage point. In 2004, Kerry won by just half of a percentage point.
While it's still early, the polls so far look very good for Barack Obama in Wisconsin.
Barack will get a lot of help in Wisconsin. The governor, James Doyle Jr., is a Democrat and an early Obama supporter. Both of the state's U.S. Senators are Democrats -- Russell D. Feingold and Herb Kohl.
Five of the state's eight U.S. Representatives are Democrats, and the State Senate is ruled by Democrats. It is only in the State Assembly that Republicans dominate.
Wisconsin is one of those industrial states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that has been hit particularly hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. There are some analysts who believe these states should be easy wins for Obama given the dire economic situation.
Another good sign for Obama is that Democrats turned out in much larger numbers than Republicans during the primary:
Wisconsin ranked 2nd overall in voter turnout for young people between 18 and 29 during 2004. Obama is strong among young voters and should focus on getting the youth vote out in 2008.
In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by just two-tenths of a percentage point. In 2004, Kerry won by just half of a percentage point.
While it's still early, the polls so far look very good for Barack Obama in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average 06/05 - 06/24 -- 49.8 40.5 Obama +9.3 Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 06/17 - 06/24 1537 LV 52 39 Obama +13.0 SurveyUSA 06/13 - 06/16 538 LV 52 43 Obama +9.0 U. of WI 06/08 - 06/10 506 LV 50 37 Obama +13.0 Rasmussen 06/05 - 06/05 500 LV 45 43 Obama +2.0
Barack will get a lot of help in Wisconsin. The governor, James Doyle Jr., is a Democrat and an early Obama supporter. Both of the state's U.S. Senators are Democrats -- Russell D. Feingold and Herb Kohl.
Five of the state's eight U.S. Representatives are Democrats, and the State Senate is ruled by Democrats. It is only in the State Assembly that Republicans dominate.
Wisconsin is one of those industrial states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that has been hit particularly hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. There are some analysts who believe these states should be easy wins for Obama given the dire economic situation.
Another good sign for Obama is that Democrats turned out in much larger numbers than Republicans during the primary:
Voter Turnout during Feb. 19 Primary
1,099,661 (D)
403,568 (R)
1,503,229 (Total)
Wisconsin ranked 2nd overall in voter turnout for young people between 18 and 29 during 2004. Obama is strong among young voters and should focus on getting the youth vote out in 2008.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Targeted States: Florida
Florida has been a tough state for Democrats in the last two presidential elections and the race looks very tight for 2008.
The state has a Republican governor and both a Democrat and Republican senator. Both the Florida State Senate and State House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. The Florida delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats.
Florida, of course, was the scene of the 'hanging chad' controversy during the 2000 election when Al Gore barely lost the state costing him the election.
Presently, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2.2 points.
Two tough crowds in Florida for Obama are Cuban and Jewish Americans. Many conservative Cubans appear less than thrilled with Obama's more open approach toward the country's southern neighbor. The Illinois senator also may be weaker than either Gore or Kerry among Jewish voters. This fact may be complicated by the fact that Sen. Joe Lieberman, a conservative Jew who ran as Al Gore's VP, will be campaigning for McCain.
Florida also has many older voters including a huge population of retirees, who generally have not been as favorable toward Obama.
However, as in most other states, the economy is the top issue for Florida voters followed by Iraq. With many of Florida's voters on fixed incomes, the rising costs of fuel and food are worrisome, and offer an opening for the Obama campaign by concentrating people's attention on the failed Bush, and by extension, McCain economic policy.
The state has a Republican governor and both a Democrat and Republican senator. Both the Florida State Senate and State House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. The Florida delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats.
Florida, of course, was the scene of the 'hanging chad' controversy during the 2000 election when Al Gore barely lost the state costing him the election.
Presently, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2.2 points.
Florida: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread RCP Average 06/09 - 06/29 -- 46.0 43.8 McCain +2.2 Strategic Vision (R) 06/27 - 06/29 1200 LV 49 41 McCain +8.0 PPP (D) 06/26 - 06/29 723 LV 44 46 Obama +2.0 Rasmussen 06/26 - 06/26 500 LV 48 41 McCain +7.0 Quinnipiac 06/09 - 06/16 1453 LV 43 47 Obama +4.0 See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Two tough crowds in Florida for Obama are Cuban and Jewish Americans. Many conservative Cubans appear less than thrilled with Obama's more open approach toward the country's southern neighbor. The Illinois senator also may be weaker than either Gore or Kerry among Jewish voters. This fact may be complicated by the fact that Sen. Joe Lieberman, a conservative Jew who ran as Al Gore's VP, will be campaigning for McCain.
Florida also has many older voters including a huge population of retirees, who generally have not been as favorable toward Obama.
However, as in most other states, the economy is the top issue for Florida voters followed by Iraq. With many of Florida's voters on fixed incomes, the rising costs of fuel and food are worrisome, and offer an opening for the Obama campaign by concentrating people's attention on the failed Bush, and by extension, McCain economic policy.
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Saturday, June 28, 2008
Targeted States: Nevada
Nevada is truly a swing state that both Al Gore and John Kerry lost by narrow margins. Gore last by four points in 2000 and Kerry by three points in 2004.
An average of current polling shows that Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the state, but McCain is winning a larger number of the surveys.
Nevada is logistically a rather simple state. A very strong grassroots operation in the Las Vegas metro area alone could be enough for victory. Reno, the second largest city in Nevada, is in many ways a carbon copy of Las Vegas with the casino industry and labor unions as dominant factors.
Although one would expect labor to vote strongly Democrat, Al Gore only picked about half the union vote in 2000.
The state has a Republican governor and senator, and a Democratic senator, Harry Reid. The Nevada Assemby is ruled by Democrats, while the State Senate is controlled by Republicans.
Here is the polling data from RealClearPolitics:
Frank Sinatra, once a Democrat who turned Republican, is still an icon in Las Vegas, Reno and Lake Tahoe. And a lot of the Democrats here are rather soft in this way, hardly to be taken for granted as supporting the Democratic nominee.
The Latino vote here is also very important. Latinos are the largest minority in the state. Hillary Clinton could be very helpful to Obama in securing this important voting bloc.
A Review Journal poll shows that the economy is easily the ranking issue among Nevada voters followed by Iraq and energy costs. Many people here, especially in Las Vegas, were hit hard by the mortgage meltdown.
Neighboring California can play a big role in winning Nevada. The Golden State can provide volunteers to work in Nevada, but that will require a strongly-entrenched local grassroots organization.
Hillary in Unity, New Hampshire.
An average of current polling shows that Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the state, but McCain is winning a larger number of the surveys.
Nevada is logistically a rather simple state. A very strong grassroots operation in the Las Vegas metro area alone could be enough for victory. Reno, the second largest city in Nevada, is in many ways a carbon copy of Las Vegas with the casino industry and labor unions as dominant factors.
Although one would expect labor to vote strongly Democrat, Al Gore only picked about half the union vote in 2000.
The state has a Republican governor and senator, and a Democratic senator, Harry Reid. The Nevada Assemby is ruled by Democrats, while the State Senate is controlled by Republicans.
Here is the polling data from RealClearPolitics:
Nevada: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread RCP Average 02/26 - 06/18 -- 43.3 43.3 Tie Rasmussen 06/18 - 06/18 500 LV 45 42 McCain +3.0 Mason-Dixon 06/09 - 06/11 625 LV 44 42 McCain +2.0 SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 611 RV 41 46 Obama +5.0 See All Nevada: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Frank Sinatra, once a Democrat who turned Republican, is still an icon in Las Vegas, Reno and Lake Tahoe. And a lot of the Democrats here are rather soft in this way, hardly to be taken for granted as supporting the Democratic nominee.
The Latino vote here is also very important. Latinos are the largest minority in the state. Hillary Clinton could be very helpful to Obama in securing this important voting bloc.
A Review Journal poll shows that the economy is easily the ranking issue among Nevada voters followed by Iraq and energy costs. Many people here, especially in Las Vegas, were hit hard by the mortgage meltdown.
Neighboring California can play a big role in winning Nevada. The Golden State can provide volunteers to work in Nevada, but that will require a strongly-entrenched local grassroots organization.
Hillary in Unity, New Hampshire.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Targeted States: New Mexico
New Mexico voted for Al Gore in 2000, but for George W. Bush in 2004.
Currently, New Mexico has a Democratic senator, Jeff Bingaman, and a Republican one, Pete Domenici. The governor of the state is Democrat Bill Richardson.
A total of 153,299 Democrats turned out for the primary on Feb. 5, as compared to 110,438 for the Republicans on June 3. The latter contest though was held long after the Republican race was decided.
Barack Obama is consistently beating John McCain in New Mexico polls for the general election.
A May poll found that about 59 percent of voters thought Iraq and the economy were the most important issues facing the nation, followed in third place by national security, the issue picked by 10 percent of voters. The same poll found that 81% thought the country was on 'the wrong track,' indicating some trouble for the party presently in power.
Currently, New Mexico has a Democratic senator, Jeff Bingaman, and a Republican one, Pete Domenici. The governor of the state is Democrat Bill Richardson.
A total of 153,299 Democrats turned out for the primary on Feb. 5, as compared to 110,438 for the Republicans on June 3. The latter contest though was held long after the Republican race was decided.
Barack Obama is consistently beating John McCain in New Mexico polls for the general election.
New Mexico has a large Latino population and a Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain.General Election: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average 06/12 - 06/19 -- 47.5 42.0 Obama +5.5 USA Today/Gallup 06/15 - 06/19 1310 LV 50 44 Obama +6.0 Newsweek 06/18 - 06/19 896 RV 51 36 Obama +15.0 FOX News 06/17 - 06/18 900 RV 45 41 Obama +4.0 Rasmussen Tracking 06/17 - 06/19 3000 LV 48 44 Obama +4.0 Gallup Tracking 06/16 - 06/19 2648 RV 46 44 Obama +2.0 Reuters/Zogby 06/12 - 06/14 1113 LV 47 42 Obama +5.0 ABC News/Wash Post 06/12 - 06/15 -- 49 45 Obama +4.0 Cook/RT Strategies 06/12 - 06/15 880 RV 44 40 Obama +4.0
A May poll found that about 59 percent of voters thought Iraq and the economy were the most important issues facing the nation, followed in third place by national security, the issue picked by 10 percent of voters. The same poll found that 81% thought the country was on 'the wrong track,' indicating some trouble for the party presently in power.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Targeted States: Michigan
Michigan voted for both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. However, it is considered a swing state this election.
Although it probably is not sound to take the demographic results from exit polls in the primary and apply them to the general election, some pundits believe Barack Obama is weak among working class Catholics particularly Catholic males. One out of every 5 people in Michigan is Catholic according to U.S. census figures.
However, Michigan has been hit hard by the economic downturn and this should make things very difficult for John McCain who will probably get linked with the Bush economy.
There is little evidence that Barack is weak in Michigan according to the polls, although we should note it is still too early to take poll results too seriously.
As we can see above, Obama is consistently ahead in the polls, and usually above the margin of error.
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll shows 43 percent of Michigan state voters rate the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq at 14 percent, terrorism at 13 percent, preserving traditional values at 10 percent, illegal immigration at 9 percent and health care with 7 percent.
Barack visits GM workers during shift change in Flint, Michigan.
Although it probably is not sound to take the demographic results from exit polls in the primary and apply them to the general election, some pundits believe Barack Obama is weak among working class Catholics particularly Catholic males. One out of every 5 people in Michigan is Catholic according to U.S. census figures.
However, Michigan has been hit hard by the economic downturn and this should make things very difficult for John McCain who will probably get linked with the Bush economy.
There is little evidence that Barack is weak in Michigan according to the polls, although we should note it is still too early to take poll results too seriously.
General Election: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RealClearPolitics Average 06/05 - 06/16 -- 46.3 42.3 Obama +4.0 ABC News/Wash Post 06/12 - 06/15 -- 49 45 Obama +4.0 Cook/RT Strategies 06/12 - 06/15 880 RV 44 40 Obama +4.0 Gallup Tracking 06/14 - 06/16 2605 RV 46 42 Obama +4.0 Rasmussen Tracking 06/14 - 06/16 3000 LV 48 44 Obama +4.0 NBC/WSJ 06/06 - 06/09 1000 RV 47 41 Obama +6.0 Hotline/FD 06/05 - 06/08 806 RV 44 42 Obama +2.0
As we can see above, Obama is consistently ahead in the polls, and usually above the margin of error.
A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll shows 43 percent of Michigan state voters rate the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq at 14 percent, terrorism at 13 percent, preserving traditional values at 10 percent, illegal immigration at 9 percent and health care with 7 percent.
Barack visits GM workers during shift change in Flint, Michigan.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Targeted States: Ohio
One can't revisit the importance of focusing on key swing states enough. The Obama campaign will work in all states to help build the campaign and the party -- registering voters, raising money, recruiting volunteers -- but it will focus a lot of its persuasion and get out the vote efforts on battleground states.
There are times when no matter how many millions one spends on TV ads, and despite the thousands of dedicated volunteers one fields, that you will still come up short in the end. You can work on these people over the long haul, but for any particular election cycle it pays to target voters who are more open and persuadable.
They identify these 'soft targets' by professional polling and reports from ground workers.
Ohio is one of the swing states with the most available electoral votes. In this primary season, the state had a much larger turnout among Democrats as compared to Republicans.
In the 2006 election, the Democrats romped to victory winning the governorship and seats in the Senate and the House. The local economy has been spiraling down for years now and there is a general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, which is blamed for the state's woes.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Obama slightly ahead in recent polls.
An Akron Buckeye Poll taken in March 2008 showed that Ohioans largely believe that the Democratic nominee will win the general election.
The major issues: "Nearly one-half of all Ohioans said that economic issues (such as jobs and prices) would be most important to their vote for president (47.5%). Another one-quarter said foreign policy issues (like the Iraq war and terrorism) would be most important (24.8%). Roughly one-sixth (16.8%) chose other domestic issues (such as public services and taxes) and one-in-ten respondents said social issues (such as abortion and same-sex marriage) would be most important to their presidential vote (10.9%)."
Obviously, Republicans are very vulnerable when the campaign if focused on the economy, so don't be surprised to see that strategy taken in the Buckeye State.
There are times when no matter how many millions one spends on TV ads, and despite the thousands of dedicated volunteers one fields, that you will still come up short in the end. You can work on these people over the long haul, but for any particular election cycle it pays to target voters who are more open and persuadable.
They identify these 'soft targets' by professional polling and reports from ground workers.
Ohio is one of the swing states with the most available electoral votes. In this primary season, the state had a much larger turnout among Democrats as compared to Republicans.
Primary Turnout in Ohio (2008)
2,233,156 (D)
1,018,865 (R)
3,450,893 (Total)
In the 2006 election, the Democrats romped to victory winning the governorship and seats in the Senate and the House. The local economy has been spiraling down for years now and there is a general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, which is blamed for the state's woes.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Obama slightly ahead in recent polls.
We should note that these polls were taken before Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race.
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average 05/13 - 05/20 -- 44.0 42.7 Obama +1.3 SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 600 RV 48 39 Obama +9.0 Quinnipiac 05/13 - 05/20 1244 RV 40 44 McCain +4.0 Rasmussen 05/15 - 05/15 500 LV 44 45 McCain +1.0
An Akron Buckeye Poll taken in March 2008 showed that Ohioans largely believe that the Democratic nominee will win the general election.
The major issues: "Nearly one-half of all Ohioans said that economic issues (such as jobs and prices) would be most important to their vote for president (47.5%). Another one-quarter said foreign policy issues (like the Iraq war and terrorism) would be most important (24.8%). Roughly one-sixth (16.8%) chose other domestic issues (such as public services and taxes) and one-in-ten respondents said social issues (such as abortion and same-sex marriage) would be most important to their presidential vote (10.9%)."
Obviously, Republicans are very vulnerable when the campaign if focused on the economy, so don't be surprised to see that strategy taken in the Buckeye State.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Obama and the Swing States
There's been a lot of discussion recently about swing state strategy in the general election.
A couple of things to note. It is often difficult if not impossible to predict which state will actually "swing" in any election. Historical analysis shows that the swing state map tends to change dramatically in cycles of about every three presidential elections.
Also, in election cycles in which there is a general "kick the bums out" mentality among the electorate, it is doubly hard to predict swing states. This is a time when the out of favor party can often lose even in traditional strongholds. It is a very good opportunity to make inroads, in this case, for the Democratic Party to make inroads in states that have been voting Republican.
Most of the analysis that I've seen tends to discount the importance of the African American and Latino vote and concentrate mostly on "white working class" voters. I think this is a big mistake.
African American turnout has historically been important for Democratic success in presidential elections for some time now. States like Florida and Michigan often hinge on the turnout out of African Americans.
Two states not often mentioned as swing state possibilities are Louisiana and North Carolina, both potential Democratic wins depending on African American voter registration and mobilization.
We also cannot forget the anti-war crowd when studying voter demographics. This group could also benefit Democrats in states like Oregon, Virginia and North Carolina. Remember Jim Webb won in Virgina on a platform that opposed the Iraq War.
Then there are those states are traditionally Republican but have Democratic governors and/or senators. Many of these are totally ignored in swing state discussions. They include Kansas, Nebraska and even John McCain's home state of Arizona. Obviously there are burgeoning Democratic or Democratic-Independent movements in these states or no Democrat could win in a statewide election. Even if the nominee can not win in these states, I think it is necessary to campaign hard in them.
By fighting in these states, not only do you grow the movement, but you keep the Republicans on the defensive. The latter will definitely recognize the potential dangers of losing old strongholds. In the end, also there are always a certain percentage of people who only get motivated when they see things getting done on a local level. They will not buy into the idea that they're states do not count and that they should contribute money only to help in the national effort. This is no problem with the Obama campaign as Barack Obama has roots in community organizing. In the end, this development at the local level ends up netting more also at the national level as I think is demonstrated by Barack's record-smashing fundraising efforts mostly collected from small and first-time donors.
A couple of things to note. It is often difficult if not impossible to predict which state will actually "swing" in any election. Historical analysis shows that the swing state map tends to change dramatically in cycles of about every three presidential elections.
Also, in election cycles in which there is a general "kick the bums out" mentality among the electorate, it is doubly hard to predict swing states. This is a time when the out of favor party can often lose even in traditional strongholds. It is a very good opportunity to make inroads, in this case, for the Democratic Party to make inroads in states that have been voting Republican.
Most of the analysis that I've seen tends to discount the importance of the African American and Latino vote and concentrate mostly on "white working class" voters. I think this is a big mistake.
African American turnout has historically been important for Democratic success in presidential elections for some time now. States like Florida and Michigan often hinge on the turnout out of African Americans.
Two states not often mentioned as swing state possibilities are Louisiana and North Carolina, both potential Democratic wins depending on African American voter registration and mobilization.
We also cannot forget the anti-war crowd when studying voter demographics. This group could also benefit Democrats in states like Oregon, Virginia and North Carolina. Remember Jim Webb won in Virgina on a platform that opposed the Iraq War.
Then there are those states are traditionally Republican but have Democratic governors and/or senators. Many of these are totally ignored in swing state discussions. They include Kansas, Nebraska and even John McCain's home state of Arizona. Obviously there are burgeoning Democratic or Democratic-Independent movements in these states or no Democrat could win in a statewide election. Even if the nominee can not win in these states, I think it is necessary to campaign hard in them.
By fighting in these states, not only do you grow the movement, but you keep the Republicans on the defensive. The latter will definitely recognize the potential dangers of losing old strongholds. In the end, also there are always a certain percentage of people who only get motivated when they see things getting done on a local level. They will not buy into the idea that they're states do not count and that they should contribute money only to help in the national effort. This is no problem with the Obama campaign as Barack Obama has roots in community organizing. In the end, this development at the local level ends up netting more also at the national level as I think is demonstrated by Barack's record-smashing fundraising efforts mostly collected from small and first-time donors.
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Barack Obama Quotes Obama Quotes on Climate Change Obama Quotes on the Iraq War Obama Quotes on Social Issues Obama Quotes on Education Obam...
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First Lady Michelle Obama sent out a letter today to members of the barackobama.com mail list (Organizing for America) providing a link to a...
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The new "pivot" to Asia and specifically to Southeast Asia by the Obama administration has generated numerous theories as to the m...
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After having discussed Barack Obama 's campaign with some other supporters, I've been musing a bit over campaign strategy . One th...
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With the second quarter nearly at an end, how much money will Barack Obama need to fund his campaign? Recently, Joe Trippi, the former How...
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The proposition that American voters might not view Barack Obama as tough enough was discussed recently on a few nationwide television news ...
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Gen. Colin Powell's endorsement of President Barack Obama sparked a top surrogate of Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Former senator John...
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Barack Obama was born on Aug. 4, 1961 to Barack Hussein Obama of Kenya and Ann Dunham of Kansas. His parents met in Hawai'i and divorc...
