Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Targeted States: Michigan

Michigan voted for both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. However, it is considered a swing state this election.

Although it probably is not sound to take the demographic results from exit polls in the primary and apply them to the general election, some pundits believe Barack Obama is weak among working class Catholics particularly Catholic males. One out of every 5 people in Michigan is Catholic according to U.S. census figures.

However, Michigan has been hit hard by the economic downturn and this should make things very difficult for John McCain who will probably get linked with the Bush economy.

There is little evidence that Barack is weak in Michigan according to the polls, although we should note it is still too early to take poll results too seriously.

General Election: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

PollDateSampleObama (D)McCain (R)Spread
RealClearPolitics Average06/05 - 06/16--46.342.3Obama +4.0
ABC News/Wash Post06/12 - 06/15--4945Obama +4.0
Cook/RT Strategies06/12 - 06/15880 RV4440Obama +4.0
Gallup Tracking06/14 - 06/162605 RV4642Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking06/14 - 06/163000 LV4844Obama +4.0
NBC/WSJ06/06 - 06/091000 RV4741Obama +6.0
Hotline/FD06/05 - 06/08806 RV4442Obama +2.0

As we can see above, Obama is consistently ahead in the polls, and usually above the margin of error.

A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll shows 43 percent of Michigan state voters rate the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq at 14 percent, terrorism at 13 percent, preserving traditional values at 10 percent, illegal immigration at 9 percent and health care with 7 percent.

Barack visits GM workers during shift change in Flint, Michigan.

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