Targeted States: Missouri

John McCain is leading in most polls out of Missouri, but just yesterday the Obama campaign tripled their staff presence in the Show Me State.

Obama for America announced it has 150 paid staffers in the state to direct the Illinois senator's army of volunteers. The total exceeds the combined peak numbers of both John Kerry who had as many as 80 Missouri staffers and George W. Bush who had up to 50 in the last presidential election.

"We have started really ramping up on the staffing, we're going to start to open offices across the state and we're really excited to talk with the people here," Debbie Mesloh with Obama For America said.

Missouri: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	06/20 - 07/07	--	49.0	44.0	McCain +5.0
Rasmussen	07/07 - 07/07	500 LV	50	45	McCain +5.0
PPP (D)	07/02 - 07/05	723 LV	47	44	McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA	06/20 - 06/22	543 LV	50	43	McCain +7.0
Rasmussen	06/03 - 06/03	500 LV	42	43	Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA	05/16 - 05/18	1523 LV	48	45	McCain +3.0
Rasmussen	05/06 - 05/06	500 LV	47	41	McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA	04/11 - 04/13	542 RV	50	42	McCain +8.0
Rasmussen	03/24 - 03/24	500 LV	53	38	McCain +15.0
SurveyUSA	03/14 - 03/16	536 RV	53	39	McCain +14.0
SurveyUSA	02/26 - 02/28	632 RV	48	42	McCain +6.0
Rasmussen	02/11 - 02/11	500 LV	42	40	McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA	01/11 - 01/13	562 RV	51	40	McCain +11.0
SurveyUSA	12/13 - 12/15	547 RV	44	47	Obama +3.0

George W. Bush beat both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 in Missouri. Indeed, a Democrat hasn't won Missouri since 1964.

Missouri has a Republican governor, Matt Blunt. In both 2000 and 2004, the governor was a Democrat. There is a Republican senator and a Democratic one, the latter being early Obama supporter Claire McCaskill.

McCaskill has been a very active campaigner for Obama and often appears on national news coverage representing the campaign.

The Missouri state legislature, both the assembly and the senate, are dominated by Republicans.

Despite the strong Republican presence in the state, there was one very good sign for Obama that occurred during the primary. A total of 824,453 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, compared to 584,618 for the Republicans.

In comparison, in 2000, 44% more Republicans voted in the primary than Democrats. Also, in the most recent statewide election, McCaskill was able to unseat an incumbent Republican possibly indicating weakening support for the party.

Efforts by the Obama campaign and the DNC to register and activate Democrats in the state are reported to be bearing fruit. So much so, that incumbent Republican Gov. Blunt has decided not to run for reelection.

Targeted States: Virginia

Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election except 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won, since 1952. The state voted for George W. Bush over both Al Gore Jr. and John Kerry by a little over eight percent of the vote.

However, the state is in play for Barack Obama in 2008 according to most pundits. During the primary, we saw a significantly large number of Democrats voting as compared to Republicans.

Voter turnout during 2008 Virginia Primary

973,931 (D)
475,484 (R)
1,449,415 (Total)

Virginia has a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, and its first Democratic senator since 2001 in Jim Webb who beat incumbent George Allen in 2007. Webb's campaign platform included opposition to the Iraq War.

The Virginia State House of Delegates is ruled by Republicans while Democrats dominate the State Senate.

McCain has a slight lead according the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, but Obama has won three of the four most recenty surveys.

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	05/12 - 06/22	--	45.0	44.3	McCain +0.7
SurveyUSA	06/20 - 06/22	630 LV	47	49	Obama +2.0
PPP (D)	06/14 - 06/16	893 LV	45	47	Obama +2.0
Rasmussen	06/12 - 06/12	500 LV	44	45	Obama +1.0
VCU	05/12 - 05/18	852 RV	44	36	McCain +8.0

See All Virginia: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have been suggested as possible running mates for Barack Obama, and both will be very helpful in helping him contest the state of Virginia.

Obama might also benefit from the fact that evangelicals, a powerful force in Virginia, are far from excited about John McCain, who has sparred with evangelicals in the past.

Virginia has a large African American population, and, for a southern state, a surprising large number of people who oppose the Iraq War. Large turnout among both groups could decide this state.

Targeted States: Wisconsin

Wisconsin was the scene of two cliffhangers in 2000 and 2004.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by just two-tenths of a percentage point. In 2004, Kerry won by just half of a percentage point.

While it's still early, the polls so far look very good for Barack Obama in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	06/05 - 06/24	--	49.8	40.5	Obama +9.3
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP	06/17 - 06/24	1537 LV	52	39	Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA	06/13 - 06/16	538 LV	52	43	Obama +9.0
U. of WI	06/08 - 06/10	506 LV	50	37	Obama +13.0
Rasmussen	06/05 - 06/05	500 LV	45	43	Obama +2.0

See All Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Barack will get a lot of help in Wisconsin. The governor, James Doyle Jr., is a Democrat and an early Obama supporter. Both of the state's U.S. Senators are Democrats -- Russell D. Feingold and Herb Kohl.

Five of the state's eight U.S. Representatives are Democrats, and the State Senate is ruled by Democrats. It is only in the State Assembly that Republicans dominate.

Wisconsin is one of those industrial states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that has been hit particularly hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. There are some analysts who believe these states should be easy wins for Obama given the dire economic situation.

Another good sign for Obama is that Democrats turned out in much larger numbers than Republicans during the primary:

Voter Turnout during Feb. 19 Primary

1,099,661 (D)
403,568 (R)
1,503,229 (Total)

Wisconsin ranked 2nd overall in voter turnout for young people between 18 and 29 during 2004. Obama is strong among young voters and should focus on getting the youth vote out in 2008.

Targeted States: Florida

Florida has been a tough state for Democrats in the last two presidential elections and the race looks very tight for 2008.

The state has a Republican governor and both a Democrat and Republican senator. Both the Florida State Senate and State House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. The Florida delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats.

Florida, of course, was the scene of the 'hanging chad' controversy during the 2000 election when Al Gore barely lost the state costing him the election.

Presently, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2.2 points.

Florida: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	06/09 - 06/29	--	46.0	43.8	McCain +2.2
Strategic Vision (R)	06/27 - 06/29	1200 LV	49	41	McCain +8.0
PPP (D)	06/26 - 06/29	723 LV	44	46	Obama +2.0
Rasmussen	06/26 - 06/26	500 LV	48	41	McCain +7.0
Quinnipiac	06/09 - 06/16	1453 LV	43	47	Obama +4.0

See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Two tough crowds in Florida for Obama are Cuban and Jewish Americans. Many conservative Cubans appear less than thrilled with Obama's more open approach toward the country's southern neighbor. The Illinois senator also may be weaker than either Gore or Kerry among Jewish voters. This fact may be complicated by the fact that Sen. Joe Lieberman, a conservative Jew who ran as Al Gore's VP, will be campaigning for McCain.

Florida also has many older voters including a huge population of retirees, who generally have not been as favorable toward Obama.

However, as in most other states, the economy is the top issue for Florida voters followed by Iraq. With many of Florida's voters on fixed incomes, the rising costs of fuel and food are worrisome, and offer an opening for the Obama campaign by concentrating people's attention on the failed Bush, and by extension, McCain economic policy.

Targeted States: Nevada

Nevada is truly a swing state that both Al Gore and John Kerry lost by narrow margins. Gore last by four points in 2000 and Kerry by three points in 2004.

An average of current polling shows that Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the state, but McCain is winning a larger number of the surveys.

Nevada is logistically a rather simple state. A very strong grassroots operation in the Las Vegas metro area alone could be enough for victory. Reno, the second largest city in Nevada, is in many ways a carbon copy of Las Vegas with the casino industry and labor unions as dominant factors.

Although one would expect labor to vote strongly Democrat, Al Gore only picked about half the union vote in 2000.

The state has a Republican governor and senator, and a Democratic senator, Harry Reid. The Nevada Assemby is ruled by Democrats, while the State Senate is controlled by Republicans.

Here is the polling data from RealClearPolitics:

Nevada: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	McCain (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	02/26 - 06/18	--	43.3	43.3	Tie
Rasmussen	06/18 - 06/18	500 LV	45	42	McCain +3.0
Mason-Dixon	06/09 - 06/11	625 LV	44	42	McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA	02/26 - 02/28	611 RV	41	46	Obama +5.0

See All Nevada: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Frank Sinatra, once a Democrat who turned Republican, is still an icon in Las Vegas, Reno and Lake Tahoe. And a lot of the Democrats here are rather soft in this way, hardly to be taken for granted as supporting the Democratic nominee.

The Latino vote here is also very important. Latinos are the largest minority in the state. Hillary Clinton could be very helpful to Obama in securing this important voting bloc.

A Review Journal poll shows that the economy is easily the ranking issue among Nevada voters followed by Iraq and energy costs. Many people here, especially in Las Vegas, were hit hard by the mortgage meltdown.

Neighboring California can play a big role in winning Nevada. The Golden State can provide volunteers to work in Nevada, but that will require a strongly-entrenched local grassroots organization.



Hillary in Unity, New Hampshire.

Targeted States: New Mexico

New Mexico voted for Al Gore in 2000, but for George W. Bush in 2004.

Currently, New Mexico has a Democratic senator, Jeff Bingaman, and a Republican one, Pete Domenici. The governor of the state is Democrat Bill Richardson.

A total of 153,299 Democrats turned out for the primary on Feb. 5, as compared to 110,438 for the Republicans on June 3. The latter contest though was held long after the Republican race was decided.

Barack Obama is consistently beating John McCain in New Mexico polls for the general election.

General Election: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	06/12 - 06/19	--	47.5	42.0	Obama +5.5
USA Today/Gallup	06/15 - 06/19	1310 LV	50	44	Obama +6.0
Newsweek	06/18 - 06/19	896 RV	51	36	Obama +15.0
FOX News	06/17 - 06/18	900 RV	45	41	Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking	06/17 - 06/19	3000 LV	48	44	Obama +4.0
Gallup Tracking	06/16 - 06/19	2648 RV	46	44	Obama +2.0
Reuters/Zogby	06/12 - 06/14	1113 LV	47	42	Obama +5.0
ABC News/Wash Post	06/12 - 06/15	--	49	45	Obama +4.0
Cook/RT Strategies	06/12 - 06/15	880 RV	44	40	Obama +4.0

New Mexico has a large Latino population and a Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain.

A May poll found that about 59 percent of voters thought Iraq and the economy were the most important issues facing the nation, followed in third place by national security, the issue picked by 10 percent of voters. The same poll found that 81% thought the country was on 'the wrong track,' indicating some trouble for the party presently in power.

Targeted States: Michigan

Michigan voted for both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. However, it is considered a swing state this election.

Although it probably is not sound to take the demographic results from exit polls in the primary and apply them to the general election, some pundits believe Barack Obama is weak among working class Catholics particularly Catholic males. One out of every 5 people in Michigan is Catholic according to U.S. census figures.

However, Michigan has been hit hard by the economic downturn and this should make things very difficult for John McCain who will probably get linked with the Bush economy.

There is little evidence that Barack is weak in Michigan according to the polls, although we should note it is still too early to take poll results too seriously.

General Election: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RealClearPolitics Average	06/05 - 06/16	--	46.3	42.3	Obama +4.0
ABC News/Wash Post	06/12 - 06/15	--	49	45	Obama +4.0
Cook/RT Strategies	06/12 - 06/15	880 RV	44	40	Obama +4.0
Gallup Tracking	06/14 - 06/16	2605 RV	46	42	Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking	06/14 - 06/16	3000 LV	48	44	Obama +4.0
NBC/WSJ	06/06 - 06/09	1000 RV	47	41	Obama +6.0
Hotline/FD	06/05 - 06/08	806 RV	44	42	Obama +2.0

As we can see above, Obama is consistently ahead in the polls, and usually above the margin of error.

A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll shows 43 percent of Michigan state voters rate the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq at 14 percent, terrorism at 13 percent, preserving traditional values at 10 percent, illegal immigration at 9 percent and health care with 7 percent.



Barack visits GM workers during shift change in Flint, Michigan.

Targeted States: Ohio

One can't revisit the importance of focusing on key swing states enough. The Obama campaign will work in all states to help build the campaign and the party -- registering voters, raising money, recruiting volunteers -- but it will focus a lot of its persuasion and get out the vote efforts on battleground states.

There are times when no matter how many millions one spends on TV ads, and despite the thousands of dedicated volunteers one fields, that you will still come up short in the end. You can work on these people over the long haul, but for any particular election cycle it pays to target voters who are more open and persuadable.

They identify these 'soft targets' by professional polling and reports from ground workers.

Ohio is one of the swing states with the most available electoral votes. In this primary season, the state had a much larger turnout among Democrats as compared to Republicans.

Primary Turnout in Ohio (2008)
2,233,156 (D)
1,018,865 (R)
3,450,893 (Total)

In the 2006 election, the Democrats romped to victory winning the governorship and seats in the Senate and the House. The local economy has been spiraling down for years now and there is a general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, which is blamed for the state's woes.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Obama slightly ahead in recent polls.

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	05/13 - 05/20	--	44.0	42.7	Obama +1.3
SurveyUSA	05/16 - 05/18	600 RV	48	39	Obama +9.0
Quinnipiac	05/13 - 05/20	1244 RV	40	44	McCain +4.0
Rasmussen	05/15 - 05/15	500 LV	44	45	McCain +1.0

We should note that these polls were taken before Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race.

An Akron Buckeye Poll taken in March 2008 showed that Ohioans largely believe that the Democratic nominee will win the general election.

The major issues: "Nearly one-half of all Ohioans said that economic issues (such as jobs and prices) would be most important to their vote for president (47.5%). Another one-quarter said foreign policy issues (like the Iraq war and terrorism) would be most important (24.8%). Roughly one-sixth (16.8%) chose other domestic issues (such as public services and taxes) and one-in-ten respondents said social issues (such as abortion and same-sex marriage) would be most important to their presidential vote (10.9%)."

Obviously, Republicans are very vulnerable when the campaign if focused on the economy, so don't be surprised to see that strategy taken in the Buckeye State.

Targeted committees growing in Obama campaign

Sen. Barack Obama may have been a little slow getting his focus groups going, but they have been coming online at a good clip recently.

Currently, Obama's website shows the following groups have been targeted:

• African Americans
• Americans Abroad
• Environmentalists
• First Americans
• Generation Obama
• Kids
• Latinos
• LGBT
• People of Faith
• Students
• Women
• More coming soon

This list excludes states for which committees have already been formed:

• Iowa
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• South Carolina
• Illinois
• More States

A total of 23 state-specific committees are up and running.

Committees focused on specific communities and demographics are very important fro any campaign. These groups prefer to work with at least some people from within their group that they consider leaders, activists, etc.

A group-specific committee will know the ropes in how deal most effectively with that community. The Obama campaign worked quickly to open up groups like Students for Obama and Women for Obama. However, some believe that he may have been a little slow in targeting minorities as he does not want to be perceived as a "minority candidate." Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has not hesitated in portraying herself a hope for women in politics.