Thursday, July 3, 2008

Targeted States: Wisconsin

Wisconsin was the scene of two cliffhangers in 2000 and 2004.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by just two-tenths of a percentage point. In 2004, Kerry won by just half of a percentage point.

While it's still early, the polls so far look very good for Barack Obama in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleObama (D)McCain (R)Spread
RCP Average06/05 - 06/24--49.840.5Obama +9.3
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP06/17 - 06/241537 LV5239Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA06/13 - 06/16538 LV5243Obama +9.0
U. of WI06/08 - 06/10506 LV5037Obama +13.0
Rasmussen06/05 - 06/05500 LV4543Obama +2.0

See All Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Barack will get a lot of help in Wisconsin. The governor, James Doyle Jr., is a Democrat and an early Obama supporter. Both of the state's U.S. Senators are Democrats -- Russell D. Feingold and Herb Kohl.

Five of the state's eight U.S. Representatives are Democrats, and the State Senate is ruled by Democrats. It is only in the State Assembly that Republicans dominate.

Wisconsin is one of those industrial states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that has been hit particularly hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. There are some analysts who believe these states should be easy wins for Obama given the dire economic situation.

Another good sign for Obama is that Democrats turned out in much larger numbers than Republicans during the primary:

Voter Turnout during Feb. 19 Primary

1,099,661 (D)
403,568 (R)
1,503,229 (Total)

Wisconsin ranked 2nd overall in voter turnout for young people between 18 and 29 during 2004. Obama is strong among young voters and should focus on getting the youth vote out in 2008.

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