Motivating unlikely voters to vote

Since most of the recent polls are sampling likely voters, the impact of turning out unlikely voters looms large.  The fact that the Obama campaign was able to convince many unlikely voters to participate in the 2008 election makes turnout even more important.

Generally, in recent elections, the presidential candidate that turns out the most members from their own party wins, as the following table demonstrates.

Year	Republicans	Democrats	Advantage	Total voters	Percent of voting age population
1992	39%	40%	D +1	104,405,155	55.23%
1996	35%	39%	D +4	96,456,345	49.08%
2000	35%	39%	D +4	105,586,274	51.30%
2004	37%	37%	Even	122,295,345	55.27%
2008	32%	39%	D +7	132,645,504	57.48%

The table shows that the exception to this rule in recent presidential elections was in 2000 when George W. Bush scored a controversial victory over Al Gore.  In that election, hanging chads in Florida enabled Bush to barely win the contest.


Bush also won in 2004, a year in which Republicans came out in equal numbers to Democrats.  President Barack Obama won by a landslide in 2008, a year that witnessed the highest voter turnout since 1968.


Obama leads among all registered voters
In almost all polls that take into account all registered voters, Obama leads and often by a significant margin.  The trend is particularly strong in the battleground states.  The polls that are making headlines now are mostly surveying likely voters. Some only show opinions for those who say they are certain to vote.


What we know from 2008 is that the Obama team is capable of registering new voters and of turning out irregular older voters.  They do this using a massive ground army combined with excellent planning and organization. 


If we look at the available metrics, Obama is doing as good or better as in 2008, and he is beating out the current GOP opposition in 2012:

• Campaign field offices -- Obama has more than twice as many field offices and the disparity is even wider in some important swing states, For example, the Obama team has more than three times as many field offices in Ohio than does the Romney camp.
• Voter registration -- Obama has beat out their highly successful 2008 registration drive even as some states are still accepting new registration forms.  Compared to the Republicans in 2012, Democrats lead in voter registration so far in the battlegrounds states of Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania.  Republicans lead only in Colorado and New Hampshire.  Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin do not register according to party.
• Non-midterm voters -- In nine battleground states, Democrats exceed Republicans in early votes cast by people who did not vote in the 2010 election.  The current lead is 19.7 percentage points. 
• Overall early vote -- Among all voters, the Democrats currently maintain a 10.7 point lead.  Republicans lead in only two battleground states -- Florida and Colorado -- but those leads should vanish once in-person early voting gets rolling in both states. Additionally, Democrats are doing a better job in beating out Republicans as compared to the statistics from 2008, especially when it comes to absentee/mail ballot requests.
• Crowd size -- Obama still looks to be drawing the larger crowds at rallies although Romney is doing better than he was previously. For example, after the last debate, both candidates appeared in Denver with Obama drawing 16,000 supporters compared to 12,000 for Romney.
• Social media and Internet activity -- Obama is still way ahead in terms of official website activity.  In social media, Obama is also well out in front although Romney's team is trying hard to catch up.  An ongoing paid ad campaign by Romney on Facebook is beefing up the number of subscribers to his page.

Managing Election Day and long lines

While early voting can account for more than 50 percent of voting in states like Florida, in most areas, Election Day still garners the bulk of total votes.

The Obama campaign must deal with strong official and volunteer efforts to suppress voting in areas that favor the president.  Unfortunately, many people procrastinate and wait until after work on Election Day to vote.  Lines can get very long in some areas. 

According to surveys, about 20 percent of registered people who do not vote claim long lines as their excuse. 

The Obama team can try to convince more of these people to vote early or to, at least, vote in the morning or during the lunch break on Election Day.  Otherwise, they need to organize at the polling places to make sure that things run smoothly. 

Rapid response teams can go to precincts with very long lines and provide relief, entertainment and snacks along with running interference if any "truthers" show up.

More on defeating voter suppression

In my previous article, "Getting out the vote amidst voter suppression," I discussed some ways of tackling voter suppression efforts going on in certain states.

Another major factor will be organizational get out the vote operations.   For example, the AFL-CIO's super-PAC Workers' Vocie and MoveOn.org recently announced that they will combine forces to encourage voting in battleground states.  They plan on making about 1.5 million phone calls by Nov. 6.

The Obama campaign and the Democratic Party will also launch their voter turnout efforts, which will be quite expansive.  Additionally, many progressive organizations have major get out the vote operations including:

• League of Women Voters
• League of Conservation Voters
• Rock the Vote

Other organized labor organizations and minority advocated groups like the NAACP will have their efforts to complement those above.

A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll suggests that Barack Obama has a large lead among people who are unlikely voters. Therefore, Obama and also probably Democrats in general should benefit from more people going to the polls.   The poll also suggested that many of these unlikely voters would be willing to vote if given a little nudge.

After Labor Day, many people who have been sitting on the sidelines up to now will start volunteering more with campaigns.  We should see action really start to pick up at that time.

For the Obama campaign, turning out voters may make the difference between victory and defeat.  Additionally, it could also influence who controls the House and Senate.

President Obama samples a baked zucchini fry in the Old Family Dining Room after the Kids’ State Dinner Aug. 20, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
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Rock the Vote Videos

The Rock the Vote website has a number of videos designed to appeal to young people in encouraging them to vote.










YouTube allows you to link to or to embed all of these videos on your blog or site, or to share them on Facebook, Twitter and other social media sites. You can also drive them up in the YouTube rankings by liking the videos and adding them as favorites.

Rock the Vote page:  http://www.rockthevote.com/vote-fearlessly/videos.html
On YouTube:  http://www.youtube.com/user/rockthevote

Obama's support among Black voters still high

Despite much higher unemployment rates among African Americans, Obama's still holds strong support among black voters.

The president is putting significant effort to get black and other minority voters to the polls in November. Minorities generally vote at lower rates during off-year elections.

The Likely Voter

If you've been paying attention to the election polls, then you have probably heard the term "likely voters" used in reference to these polls.

Democrats are performing worse in polls that involve likely voters as compared to polls of all voters.  In fact, in the latter Democrats are about dead even with Republicans.

One of the problems in determining which voters are likely to vote and which are not is that all the polls use different methodologies.  And those methodologies often change as we get nearer to the election.

Generally the polls ask people a series of questions to determine whether or not they are likely to vote. As you can imagine, answers to these questions can change over time.  In reality, early polls are not very good at determining voter turnout.  Even polls later in the race are only moderately accurate in predicting how many voters will go to vote.

Thus, in close races the actual voter turnout can really make a big difference.

Each side will remind and attempt to persuade their supporters to vote.  These efforts are especially important with supporters who do not vote in every election. Of course, neither side makes any direct effort to remind non-supporters to vote.



About 26,000 people showed up to support President Barack Obama at a rally yesterday in Madison, Wisconsin.

Democratic Party preparing for big vote push

David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Barack Obama's presidential campaign, talks about the Democratic Party's mobilization efforts.

We're now at the point that lots of Democratic operatives are back to work as campaign offices open up all over the place.

A new series of election polls indicate that the things are not nearly as bad for Democrats as some pundits are suggesting.  The party will need to get their voters out to vote along with registering new young progressive voters.  It will take a lot of organization, technology and effort, but you can see the infrastructure starting to build up.  Lots of well-trained people out there who gained valuable experience during the Obama campaign but have been barely keeping things together after the race ended and the economy crashed.

Fortunately, political operatives will not have to wait to long this time around before they have to get to work again for Obama's 2012 reelection campaign.

Why the Math favors Obama

If you look at the voter turnout rates during the primary, then anything close to a repetition of that performance should give the Democrats a landslide victory in November.

Not only did Democrats turn out in much larger numbers overall, but in most of the key swing states they also easily outdid the Republicans.

Of course, the caveat here is that the people who turned out for Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and the other candidates also turn out for Barack Obama in the fall.

In most cases this is probably not a problem, however Hillary Clinton's campaign is a bit different. As the first viable woman presidential candidate, Hillary probably attracted a lot of people to vote in Democratic primaries who might not have done so otherwise.

Some of these women may have voted for Hillary in open primaries, or may have switched to Democrat just to vote for Sen. Clinton. So, these are not necessarily loyal Democrats.

The obvious way to attract this voting segment would be for Obama to select a woman running mate. While John McCain could counter by selecting a woman vice president of his own, I think overall this would play better for Democrats. There are a lot more "old-fashioned" conservatives in the Republican Party who might be less enthusiastic about a woman vice president.

Now, some might think a woman running with Obama is too much. The first black man and the first woman on the same ticket? However, for those inclined to vote for Obama, it would seem unlikely they would not vote for him just because he does not have a white male running mate. If you're open-minded about a black candidate, you're less likely to be close-minded about a woman candidate.

Now it may be that the woman on the ticket should be seen as a strong, earthy type to balance the airy Camelot atmosphere that surrounds Barack. Someone with plenty of foreign policy experience, and experience in general.



Burma shave signs for Obama in Iowa.

Targeted States: Wisconsin

Wisconsin was the scene of two cliffhangers in 2000 and 2004.

In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by just two-tenths of a percentage point. In 2004, Kerry won by just half of a percentage point.

While it's still early, the polls so far look very good for Barack Obama in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama (RealClearPolitics)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	06/05 - 06/24	--	49.8	40.5	Obama +9.3
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP	06/17 - 06/24	1537 LV	52	39	Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA	06/13 - 06/16	538 LV	52	43	Obama +9.0
U. of WI	06/08 - 06/10	506 LV	50	37	Obama +13.0
Rasmussen	06/05 - 06/05	500 LV	45	43	Obama +2.0

See All Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Barack will get a lot of help in Wisconsin. The governor, James Doyle Jr., is a Democrat and an early Obama supporter. Both of the state's U.S. Senators are Democrats -- Russell D. Feingold and Herb Kohl.

Five of the state's eight U.S. Representatives are Democrats, and the State Senate is ruled by Democrats. It is only in the State Assembly that Republicans dominate.

Wisconsin is one of those industrial states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that has been hit particularly hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. There are some analysts who believe these states should be easy wins for Obama given the dire economic situation.

Another good sign for Obama is that Democrats turned out in much larger numbers than Republicans during the primary:

Voter Turnout during Feb. 19 Primary

1,099,661 (D)
403,568 (R)
1,503,229 (Total)

Wisconsin ranked 2nd overall in voter turnout for young people between 18 and 29 during 2004. Obama is strong among young voters and should focus on getting the youth vote out in 2008.

Expanding the Map to 50 States

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe briefed reporters today on the 50 state strategy planned for the general election.

The campaign involves a massive voter registration and turnout effort.


click to enlarge


Most campaigns would avoid working in any of the states but those targeted as vulnerable to swing one way or another.

The Obama strategy though activates the maximum number of supporters in all states by getting them involved in grassroots operations. In most cases, these states will pay for themselves while still contributing to the national effort.

A basic principle involved is that more people are likely to get active when they can work locally on the ground. This leads to a larger and stronger overall network with more resources, of various kinds, to apply to the battleground states also.

View the full presentation

Ride Share in North Carolina and Indiana

If you would like to help drive voters to the polls, contact an Indiana Township Team by clicking on the link below.

This link is for North Carolina ride-sharing.


You can also sign up for the election night party at North Carolina State University in Raleigh, NC.

Turnout Effort is Key

With the weekend approaching, the get out the vote effort will fire up to full throttle. The four days leading up to Tuesday are traditionally the best for reminding and motivating supporters about the election.

Many people need a little push to go to the polls, and that group often decides elections in the end.

Here is a video of Bonnie, a volunteer from Greene County, Pennsylvania.






April 18 On Track for Change Rally
in Philadelphia

Pennsylvania and the Democratic Establishment

A lot of people are wondering why Barack Obama is having trouble in places with strong Democratic establishments like Pennsylvania. They might be wondering also if Hillary Clinton is right and Barack may have trouble in these states during the general election.

Let's remember that Hillary is strong in these states because she's long been part of the establishment that her husband helped create. This is a Democratic establishment. These are the people least likely to vote for a Republican or even a Green Party candidate for exactly the same reasons they are more likely to vote for Clinton. So they can be expected to strongly support the Democrat whoever that candidate might be.

These are old school types where the law of "I scratch your back, you scratch my back" rules. We saw some of this mentality in the Clinton camp fury that followed Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama. Of course, there's nothing wrong with expecting favors to be returned, but not when it interferes with the best interests of the people and getting the people's job done.

Also, we should note that the problem of corporations expecting favors in return for campaign donations is one of the problems that has created the current political mess.

In old school politics, freelancing is discouraged and loyalty is required. Thus, when you have a strong Democratic machine, you will find that things are lined up like dominoes for the establishment nod.

Of course, an upset can still occur when there is a motivated grassroots effort that turns out a lot of new or unexpected voters.

Getting out the Vote in Pennsylvania

With about a week left until the Pennsylvania primary, the focus shifts to voter turnout.

The Keystone State will be a tough one for the Obama campaign and their hopes rely mainly on registering overs and getting out the vote. They completed a successful voter registration drive, so now the task is getting Obama supporters to the polls.

Young people could end up playing the vital role.

Check out the YouTube video of the University of Pittsburgh student forum. Representatives of Students for Obama answered policy question at the forum coordinated by the University of Pittsburgh College Democrats.

The Last 72 Hours...

..until the polls close on Tuesday.

Political analysts, for example, have long realized the importance of late deciders, launching all- out GOTV (get-out-the-vote) drives in the last 72 hours before the election.

-- Robert E. Denton, The 1996 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective, 1998.

Over the last two decades, campaigns have spent enormous amounts of the campaign budget on get out the vote (GOTV) drives in the last 72 hours before the election. That strategy emerged from polls indicating that a large percentage of people decide who to vote for close to the time of the election.

-- Alan B. Albarran and David H. Goff, Understanding the Web: Social, Political and Economic Dimensions of the Internet, 2000.

Sacramento Rallies for Barack Obama

In Sacramento, California, on Feb. 2, 2008, we had a morning rally and canvass followed by an evening rally with Sen. John Kerry at California State University.

Despite the cold, rain and wind at the rally, people were fired up and ready to go turn out the vote on Tuesday, Feb. 5.






Action Center

Obama Mobile

Dean Florez on GOTV

Check out the YouTube video were California State Senator Dean Florez talks about the importance of grassroots and the get out the vote effort in the final push until the polls close on Tuesday, Feb. 5.




Action Center

Obama Mobile

Obama's Sleeping Giant: Young Voters

Since the campaign started nearly a year ago, the Obama campaign has carefully courted and organized young people to support his candidacy. Indeed, it was a group of young supporters known as Students for Barack Obama that helped orchestrate the drive for Obama to run in the first place.

If these young people do actually awake and turn out on Feb. 5, the Illinois senator could shock everyone with a tsunami victory. If not, then it will be much, much tougher. Of course, there are other important factors like independent voters, cross-over voters, etc., but none quite so difficult to predict as young voters.

According the U.S. census, about 10.46 percent of the Iowa population is between 18 and 24 years old. In comparison, New Hampshire has about 9.13 percent in the same category and Nevada only 8.55 percent.

South Carolina, which just finished voting today, has 9.72 percent in the 18-24 range. We saw today a masterful example of how getting out the vote should be done.

Tsunami Tuesday states with high percentages of young people include North Dakota (12.86%), Utah (12.51%), Alaska (10.70%), Kansas (10.59%), New Mexico (10.48%), California (10.38%), Minnesota (10.07%) and New York (10.04%).

In traditional voter turnout among Feb. 5 states, Minnesota (43%) and Massachusetts (34%) are standouts.

Much of Barack's support among young people is found at the nation's colleges and universities. California had the leading number of fall enrollment in 2005 with 2,399,833 at degree-granting institutions followed by New York, among Feb. 5 states, with 1,152,081.

Hillary Clinton's campaign understands Barack's appeal to young people and recently she has highlighted her programs to cut tuition fees and reign in predatory student lenders. Her daughter Chelsea and Hollywood stars like America Fererra can also be expected to make circuits of college campuses for Hillary.

Obama may have a bit of a lead here though with hundreds of college chapters of Students for Barack Obama created over the last year. It will be up to his supporters though to make sure these chapters are energized to spread the word and get out the youth vote.

Get Out The Vote drive fires up in South Carolina

South Carolina supporters of Barack Obama are pushing with just a week left before the polls for a big turnout on Jan. 26.



Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus and former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges rally Obama supporters to get out the vote.

Former SC Dem. Party chief Dick Harpootlian, a Barack Obama supporter, talks about the South Carolina race.

Videos: Campaigning in Nevada

Michelle Obama and John Kerry in Las Vegas


Young voters energize campaign











South Carolina Primary

Mobilizing Voters

Not a task to be taken lightly especially in lower income neighborhoods and college communities.

Problems can range from long lines to lack of transportation. One good thing is that the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary are both taking place on Saturday, so most voters shouldn't have work conflicts. Note though that casinos are 24/7 operations. Feb. 5 polls fall on the normal voting day of Tuesday with all the associated problems.

The traditional methods of getting out the vote include phone-banking, canvassing, rallies, providing transportation, waving signs, etc. It's important to let supporters not excuse themselves from voting specifically for Barack Obama thinking that just a single vote won't matter anyway.

For those who can't go to Nevada and don't have free long distance for phone-banking, there are some ways to help online.

First of all you can join barackobama.com, if you haven't already.

Obviously if you know anyone in a voting state, you can send them an email or text message letting them know about your support of Barack.

For some ideas on online or netroots campaigning, try some of these links:

Action Center

Obama Mobile

Rate up good Obama news (works on YouTube also)

baracktivator

Publicizing your events with online calendars