Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Why the Math favors Obama

If you look at the voter turnout rates during the primary, then anything close to a repetition of that performance should give the Democrats a landslide victory in November.

Not only did Democrats turn out in much larger numbers overall, but in most of the key swing states they also easily outdid the Republicans.

Of course, the caveat here is that the people who turned out for Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and the other candidates also turn out for Barack Obama in the fall.

In most cases this is probably not a problem, however Hillary Clinton's campaign is a bit different. As the first viable woman presidential candidate, Hillary probably attracted a lot of people to vote in Democratic primaries who might not have done so otherwise.

Some of these women may have voted for Hillary in open primaries, or may have switched to Democrat just to vote for Sen. Clinton. So, these are not necessarily loyal Democrats.

The obvious way to attract this voting segment would be for Obama to select a woman running mate. While John McCain could counter by selecting a woman vice president of his own, I think overall this would play better for Democrats. There are a lot more "old-fashioned" conservatives in the Republican Party who might be less enthusiastic about a woman vice president.

Now, some might think a woman running with Obama is too much. The first black man and the first woman on the same ticket? However, for those inclined to vote for Obama, it would seem unlikely they would not vote for him just because he does not have a white male running mate. If you're open-minded about a black candidate, you're less likely to be close-minded about a woman candidate.

Now it may be that the woman on the ticket should be seen as a strong, earthy type to balance the airy Camelot atmosphere that surrounds Barack. Someone with plenty of foreign policy experience, and experience in general.

Burma shave signs for Obama in Iowa.

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