Obama and the Swing States

There's been a lot of discussion recently about swing state strategy in the general election.

A couple of things to note. It is often difficult if not impossible to predict which state will actually "swing" in any election. Historical analysis shows that the swing state map tends to change dramatically in cycles of about every three presidential elections.

Also, in election cycles in which there is a general "kick the bums out" mentality among the electorate, it is doubly hard to predict swing states. This is a time when the out of favor party can often lose even in traditional strongholds. It is a very good opportunity to make inroads, in this case, for the Democratic Party to make inroads in states that have been voting Republican.

Most of the analysis that I've seen tends to discount the importance of the African American and Latino vote and concentrate mostly on "white working class" voters. I think this is a big mistake.

African American turnout has historically been important for Democratic success in presidential elections for some time now. States like Florida and Michigan often hinge on the turnout out of African Americans.

Two states not often mentioned as swing state possibilities are Louisiana and North Carolina, both potential Democratic wins depending on African American voter registration and mobilization.

We also cannot forget the anti-war crowd when studying voter demographics. This group could also benefit Democrats in states like Oregon, Virginia and North Carolina. Remember Jim Webb won in Virgina on a platform that opposed the Iraq War.

Then there are those states are traditionally Republican but have Democratic governors and/or senators. Many of these are totally ignored in swing state discussions. They include Kansas, Nebraska and even John McCain's home state of Arizona. Obviously there are burgeoning Democratic or Democratic-Independent movements in these states or no Democrat could win in a statewide election. Even if the nominee can not win in these states, I think it is necessary to campaign hard in them.

By fighting in these states, not only do you grow the movement, but you keep the Republicans on the defensive. The latter will definitely recognize the potential dangers of losing old strongholds. In the end, also there are always a certain percentage of people who only get motivated when they see things getting done on a local level. They will not buy into the idea that they're states do not count and that they should contribute money only to help in the national effort. This is no problem with the Obama campaign as Barack Obama has roots in community organizing. In the end, this development at the local level ends up netting more also at the national level as I think is demonstrated by Barack's record-smashing fundraising efforts mostly collected from small and first-time donors.

Obama Moves To Unify Party Against McCain

Check out the Washington Post article on Barack Obama's moves to unite the party for the general election in November.

Obama Seeks To Unify Party For November

Meanwhile, Clinton Gives No Hint She'll Surrender

By Shailagh Murray and Perry Bacon Jr.

Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, May 9, 2008; Page A01

Sen. Barack Obama began taking the first steps to unify the fractured Democratic Party for a general-election battle against Sen. John McCain, even as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton continued to insist that she has the backing of a broader coalition that could carry the party to victory in November.

Returning to Washington yesterday, Obama was mobbed by well-wishers as he walked onto the House floor. But behind the scenes, his campaign worked with a light touch to win over uncommitted superdelegates and allies of Clinton, mindful of not appearing overconfident and of the fact that they would need the backing of the candidate, her husband and their supporters in the fall.

With numerous prominent Democrats believed to be waiting in the wings to endorse his candidacy, Obama appears poised to win the pledged delegates and superdelegates he will need to claim the Democratic nomination as early as May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon vote. But although he appeared to lock down his lead on Tuesday with a strong win in North Carolina and a narrow loss in Indiana, he won only two new superdelegate endorsements yesterday, from Reps. Rick Larsen (Wash.) and Brad Miller (N.C.). Many other unaligned lawmakers said they are likely to remain on the sidelines for the time being, in deference to Clinton.

"Superdelegates understandably would prefer not to be seen as the deciding factor," Obama told reporters between meetings at the Capitol, brushing aside the suggestion that a mass endorsement is in the offing. "I think they respect the process, they respect Senator Clinton and myself."

As Clinton campaigned in West Virginia, which will hold its primary on Tuesday, her backers were also calling superdelegates, encouraging them to remain uncommitted until after the final two primaries on June 3 and touting poll numbers suggesting that Clinton would be a stronger nominee in key states such as Florida and Ohio. "Some people don't agree, but most people respect the argument," said Steve Grossman, a member of Clinton's national finance team.

In Charleston, W.Va., yesterday, Clinton argued that the coalition of voters backing her would make her more viable than Obama against McCain. "The delegate math may get complicated, but the electoral math is easy: We need 270 electoral votes to win in November," she said at a rally.

Clinton is expected to win the state by a hefty margin. Yesterday, she repeatedly referred to her appeal among "hardworking Americans," including "Catholic voters, Hispanic voters, blue-collar voters and seniors -- the kind of people who Senator McCain will be fighting for in the general election." She did not repeat the term "white voters," which she used in a USA Today interview published yesterday.

She also gave no hint of surrender in a letter to Obama about the delegate impasse involving Florida and Michigan. "Your commitment to the voters of these states must be clearly stated and your support for a fair and quick resolution must be clearly demonstrated," she wrote.

After Tuesday's primaries left Obama the clear Democratic front-runner, McCain's campaign refocused its attention on the senator from Illinois, preparing to question his experience on national security and his credentials on reform issues. Clinton, meanwhile, had become an afterthought for the presumptive GOP nominee.

"After I've been saying for a year, 'Don't count the Clintons out until they're out.' People are laughing at me," said Charles Black, a McCain campaign adviser. "I don't see how she does it."

Mark Salter, a senior McCain adviser, struck back sharply after Obama said on CNN that McCain was "losing his bearings" when he suggested that Hamas preferred that Obama be elected. Salter said Obama used the phrase "intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue. This is typical of Obama's style of campaigning."

In Chicago, Obama's team worked to accelerate a transition to general-election mode that began weeks ago, only to be shelved as the primary showdown continued. In addition to competing in the six remaining contests, Obama will mix in stops to battleground states in the coming weeks, advisers said.

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Obama Supporters want decisiveness

Democratic waffling and a failure of the superdelegates to take decisive action on the nomination has some Barack Obama supporters worried.

House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn, D-S.C., the highest ranking African-American and third highest Democrat in Congress, warned that continued negative campaigning may hurt the party's chances in November.

He is also worried about a protracted struggle. "If this party is perceived by people as having gone into a back room somewhere and brokered a nominee, that would not be good for our party."




Barack Obama hears from Bernard Smith about the economy at a townhall meeting in Marion, Indiana today.