Handicapping Obama

If we just look at the polls, then candidate Barack Obama might seem like a real long shot right now. He would not be the horse to bet on.

However, in early Democratic polls historically are not very accurate. By "early," you could make the argument that any poll other than the actual voting is early! For example, if you would have bet on the winner of the last Democratic primary election based on polling just a week before Iowa, you would have lost.

Not only was the national polling wrong, even the polling for Iowa turned out way off the mark.

When election time is at hand, the spotlight on the candidate's becomes that much brighter. People start really thinking about who they want to support. The weaknesses and strengths of the different candidates, at least the appearance of those qualities, starts to weigh heavily on the mind.

Issues that are important to the voting population, like the Iraq War and the economy, will likely take center stage depending on how the different campaigns frame the issues. Also, the media, including bloggers, play a role as to which issues take the commanding role.

Hillary Clinton probably has the most experienced, established campaign staff and quite a lot of external organizational support. John Edwards is amassing good support from organized labor. Barack Obama arguably has the younger, most innovative team behind him.

Barack seems to have lower negatives than the other front-runners and less unfavorable history. That could make a difference when the election is actually at hand. To me, the race is much closer than indicated by the polls.

Washington Post/ABC Poll
10/29 - 11/1, 2007

Fav/Unfav

Obama 51 / 36
Clinton 50 / 46
Edwards 49 / 35

Giuliani 50 / 40
McCain 43 / 42
Thompson 33 / 37
Romney 28 / 41
Huckabee 21 / 30

Of course, this is also only a poll. But I think things could get worse for Clinton and to a lesser extent Edwards as game time approaches because of their history particularly on the Iraq War.

A lot depends on how the Obama team's Iowa strategy works. They've invested a lot of time and resources in this state. If he comes in first or second, maybe third if the race is extremely tight and Hillary is not on top, I think he has a good chance. Otherwise, he becomes a big underdog.