Enthusiasm gap could decide election

While many eyes focus on the money game, it may be getting a little late even for big bucks to make a huge difference.  With a little more than two months left, grassroots support may become the deciding factor.

Unless a campaign has an effective message even spending massive amounts of money will only end up producing dwindling returns.  President Obama has largely been able to deflect most the GOP attacks directed against him thus far.

Mitt Romney does not want to go too hard on the economy because it allows Obama and Democrats to attack his record at Bain Capital.  The late Sen. Ted Kennedy used Bain attacks to defeat Romney in a contest for Kennedy's incumbent U.S. Senate seat. Romney also cannot not use his record as governor because, among other reasons, the specter of Romneycare may turn off the Tea Party base.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that Romney is the least popular nominee at convention time since they started detailed polling back in 1984.  That lack of enthusiasm for the former governor may end up hurting his field efforts.

The same poll showed that, so far, the Obama campaign has done a better job at contacting voters.  They are at about the same level as they were in 2008 at this time, with the Obama camp reaching about 20 percent of voters compared to only 13 percent for Romney's team.

Other evidence also suggests that Obama's campaign team is driving harder than Romney's.   Look at the graph from alexa.com covering the last six months and comparing the official websites of both campaigns.






The official Obama site, barackobama.com, has consistently outperformed his opponent's counterpart, mittromney.com in terms of direct Internet reach. 

Earlier polls showed that Obama has a higher percentage of strong supporters as compared to Romney and this could manifest when it comes time for volunteers to really get "down in the dirt."

DNC raises record cash in Sept.

The latest evidence that the "enthusiasm gap" is waning is found in a report from the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) raised $16 million in September according to DNC sources -- the biggest monthly haul since 2002.

While a ABC/Washington Post poll released today still showed Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting, the slide in Democratic energy appears to have stopped. The poll was unchanged from the previous month -- the first leveling off since July.

The discrepancy may lie in the fact that Democrats are now engaged in motivating their base, their activists. They are preparing for the big push that will start about next week. No surprise that your average Democratic voter is not that energized since we're not electing the big chief.

What we should see is all these mobilized Democratic volunteers going door-to-door, calling voters, holding rallies, staffing tables, waving signs, and doing other campaign stuff to make progressive voters more aware. They will be trying to instill in supporting voters the importance of preventing gridlock in Washington and in advancing a forward-moving agenda.

With all the new cash, expect to see a mass media campaign fairly soon with the same objectives.

 

Latinos, Blacks bridging "enthusiasm gap"

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll earlier in the week found that African Americans and Blacks are helping erase the "enthusiasm gap" mentioned so often in the press.  The growing excitement among those groups is also narrowing the margin between Democrats and Republicans in the generic polls for the House of Representatives.

Recent statements by President Obama and other prominent Democrats also indicate the the level of excitement among Democrats is rising rapidly.  The most recent Newsweek poll shows the Democrats up in the generic ballot by five percent among registered voters. Attendance at rallies like the recent appearance of Obama in Wisconsin that attracted about 26,000 people also provide more evidence that the enthusiasm gap is narrowing quickly.

The level of enthusiasm among minority voters can play a big role in these elections.  What may end up happening is that in states and districts where Republicans are expected to win, they will simply win by larger margins that usual.  However, in other areas where the races are closer and where there are large minority communities, a better than expected turnout among these groups could lead to Democratic victories.

We've seen the same phenomenon before and it's related to the dual factors of the greater diversity of the Democratic Party and the segregated nature of many districts and even some whole states.  If the energy level among minority voters continues to spike, we may even see unexpected gains for the Democrats.

Latino voters can make a big difference, for example, in the big senate races in California, pitting Sen. Barbara Boxer against Carly Fiorina, and in Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid is facing Sharon Angle.  Black and Asian Pacific Islander voters will also make a significant difference in those races.  African American voters will be more prominent in states like Illinois, Pennsylvania and Florida.  Indeed, we may see a new enthusiasm gap -- this time with Democrats leading as the more motivated party.