Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Enthusiasm gap could decide election

While many eyes focus on the money game, it may be getting a little late even for big bucks to make a huge difference.  With a little more than two months left, grassroots support may become the deciding factor.

Unless a campaign has an effective message even spending massive amounts of money will only end up producing dwindling returns.  President Obama has largely been able to deflect most the GOP attacks directed against him thus far.

Mitt Romney does not want to go too hard on the economy because it allows Obama and Democrats to attack his record at Bain Capital.  The late Sen. Ted Kennedy used Bain attacks to defeat Romney in a contest for Kennedy's incumbent U.S. Senate seat. Romney also cannot not use his record as governor because, among other reasons, the specter of Romneycare may turn off the Tea Party base.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that Romney is the least popular nominee at convention time since they started detailed polling back in 1984.  That lack of enthusiasm for the former governor may end up hurting his field efforts.

The same poll showed that, so far, the Obama campaign has done a better job at contacting voters.  They are at about the same level as they were in 2008 at this time, with the Obama camp reaching about 20 percent of voters compared to only 13 percent for Romney's team.

Other evidence also suggests that Obama's campaign team is driving harder than Romney's.   Look at the graph from alexa.com covering the last six months and comparing the official websites of both campaigns.






The official Obama site, barackobama.com, has consistently outperformed his opponent's counterpart, mittromney.com in terms of direct Internet reach. 

Earlier polls showed that Obama has a higher percentage of strong supporters as compared to Romney and this could manifest when it comes time for volunteers to really get "down in the dirt."



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