Al-Qaeda in the House

With Pennsylvanians voting now for their Democratic nominee, I was struck by al-Qaeda no. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri's second taped message this month, and this one just the day before the primary. In fact, it was Tuesday in Pakistan and Afghanistan when this was posted.

I was reminded of the theory that Osama bin-Ladin's release of a message just before the last presidential election was a calculated al-Qaeda effort to help George W. Bush get elected. The logic is that al-Qaeda's recruiting, fundraising and propaganda efforts are strengthened by a belligerent U.S. policy in the Muslim world. Now this was just a theory and no solid evidence that I know of backs it up.

However, the timing of these two recent tapes is uncanny.

Again, the logic here would be that al-Qaeda would support '100-year war' John McCain for the presidency. So we can then ask, why would they release two tapes just weeks apart, one of them the day before the Democratic primary? It may be that they see Barack Obama as more likely to beat McCain than Hillary Clinton.

Hillary would probably benefit more from fear tactics than Barack Obama. In fact, her most recent television ad is a fear ad that actually flashes an image of Osama bin-Ladin.

Now again, there is no solid evidence for these musings, but you certainly have to wonder.

Barack Obama wins Wisconsin

NBC News and CNN are projecting Barack Obama will win the Wisconsin primary.

The caucuses in Hawai'i begin at 7 pm local time.

Barack Obama finishes strong second in New Hampshire

Sen. Barack Obama came in second tonight but not far behind Hillary Clinton.

The primary illustrates how wrong polls, even late ones can be. Barack had double digit leads in a number of polls and was way ahead in the Reuters-Zogby poll on election day, but came up short.

It may not have made any difference as there was only five days of campaigning between Iowa and New Hampshire.

The focus now turns to Nevada where caucuses will be held on Jan. 19 giving the candidates 11 days to campaign including election day get out the vote.

The importance of the African American vote

African American votes are important in any Democratic presidential primary but one could say they are especially important for Barack Obama as he is probably expected to do well among these voters.

I happen to be one of those that believe African American voters allowed Bill Clinton to win the 1992 primary despite coming in near the bottom in Iowa and losing, despite placing a close second, in New Hampshire.

The African American vote gave Clinton the edge in many states particularly in the South.

Jesse Jackson won 11 primaries in his second bid including South Carolina despite the fact that he was never competitive money-wise and was never taken seriously by the majority of white voters. His success was largely due to the power of African American voters in many key Democratic states where they effectively form a swing vote.

While it is important to do well in early states like Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Obama must campaign hard also in the African American community. In one of the early states, South Carolina, black votes are often key to winning for Democrats.