When you look at the facts, it's obvious that Obama is correct. Al-Qaeda does not appear to have lost strength. If you look internationally at the number and intensity of al-Qaeda attacks before and after 9/11, you quickly see that the group's most spectacular success has come afterward.
Remember that al-Qaeda was originally formed to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan as a U.S. ally. It only became an enemy of the United States after U.S. military intervention in the Muslim world by George Bush during the Gulf War. Al-Qaeda interpreted this as a manifestation of the doctrine of the "clash of civilizations" that was a feature of Bush Sr.'s thinking.
Before that period, America and other Western countries had maintained a discrete and stable military presence in Arab countries for decades including bases in Saudi Arabia.
Al-Qaeda had practically no presence in Iraq before the Gulf War. Afterward they were able to establish a foothold only in the U.S.-occupied Kurdish regions of the north. It was only after the U.S. occupation of Iraq that al-Qaeda has become so powerful that even old Baathists in the Sunni region are forced to cooperate with the group..
Previously, al-Qaeda and the Baath Party of both Iraq and Syria were mortal enemies.
The Bush logic in claiming that the Iraq War had some link with fighting terrorism is based entirely on one idea. Bush has claimed repeatedly that fighting in Iraq attracks al-Qaeda fighters to that country and keeps them from going elsewhere and particularly to the U.S.
No obviously Iraqis are probably not pleased to learn about that strategy of their country used as some sort of a bait for Iraqi fighters, but Bush has made many comments that basically imply this very fact.
We are led by the administration to the "proof" of this strategy by lack of any post 9-11 attacks on the United States.
Even if we forget that al-Qaeda has struck in many other countries post-9-11 including close U.S. ally Britain, we simply haven't seen any evidence that any planned attacks on the U.S. were foiled by the Iraq invasion or even by the war in Afghanistan.
A number of rather small plots to attack the U.S. both before and after 9-11 have been stopped, but only one major attack even approaching the scale of the World Trade Center bombings.
That was the plan just last year to destroy multiple passenger airlines bound to the U.S. from the United Kingdom using liquid explosives.
Now, did the war in Iraq have anything to do with breaking up that plot? Obviously not.
Those attacks were foiled by homeland security investigations. The plotters were primarily from Pakistan.
So, the fact is that simply don't know that al-Qaeda ever had a long list of planned attacks on the U.S. after 9-11, or if they did what the timetable existed for those attacks. They may have been spread many years apart for all we know.
What we do know is that the Iraq War has opened a door for al-Qaeda in Iraq and has established that country as something of a training ground. The recent attacks in England and Scotland, for example, had a direct Iraq connection.
Will we now see techniques like car bombs and IUDs perfected in Iraq used elsewhere in the world?
Definitely we have to look at the Iraq War as a step back in the "war on terrorism." We've simply expanded the playing field, and ignited more passion than existed beforehand.
Just look at the evidence, Hezbollah defeated the mighty Israeli armed forces in Lebanon, Hamas has taken over half of the Palestinian territories and al-Qaeda is striking with greater frequency than ever before.
And I won't even get into other problems with Iran playing its hand now in the region except to say that extremist groups like Hezoballah, al-Qaeda and Hamas are now stronger than ever.
Just look at the evidence, Hezbollah defeated the mighty Israeli armed forces in Lebanon, Hamas has taken over half of the Palestinian territories and al-Qaeda is striking with greater frequency than ever before.
Obama feels we must leave Iraq to deal with its own problems and stop giving the people reasons to listen to al-Qaeda.
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