Obama 2012 Campaign Strategy

In the Time article "The 15% Question: Why Mitt Romney's Tax Rate Matters," by Adam Sorenson, he shows why Romney's image may play an important role in Obama campaign strategy should the former Massachusetts governor win the nomination.

Obama's handlers are figuring out ways for the president to win enough electoral votes to take the election and part of the strategy will involve coming out with the right message.  Recently, Obama's speeches have leaned more toward a populist approach in agreement with many of the sentiments of the Occupy movement.

Mitt Romney would make an excellent opponent for framing the issues around the growing conflict between the "99 percent" and the "1 percent."

Talking to reporters, Romney said that his tax rate is close to 15% because most of his earnings come from investments (capital gains).  That means that  basically he pays a lower rate than working lower middle class Americans despite having a fortune estimated at $250 million.

If that was not enough, a recent ABC report indicates that Romney is shielding millions of dollars of his wealth from US taxes through offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands.

Expect to see these issues resurface should Romney win the nomination.  Also, expect to see the video of Romney claiming in Iowa that corporations are people played repeatedly by Obama supporters if not the campaign itself, if an Obama-Romney match-up occurs.

An Obama campaign strategy centered around a populist message will appeal to many voters still hurting from a slowly-recovering economy against the backdrop of a Republican Party that seems not to care much about creating jobs for Americans.


Romney critic on Bain Capital resurfaces

Democrats surge in newest polls

New polls just out show the Democrats surging in California, Kentucky and Nevada.  Obviously this is good news as we approach election time.

The poor performance of Democrats in the polls has often been put forward as evidence that the public is dissatisfied with the party.  However, much of that phenomenon may be related instead to the greater noise made by the Tea Party over the last few years.

Now with big elections coming up, Democrats are finally showing signs of energy and they are equaling or exceeding the Republicans in putting out their message.

Sens. Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid along with Kentucky Democratic senatorial candidate Jack Conway have moved up significantly in poll numbers.  Also, gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown in California is leading Republican nominee Meg Whitman in a just-released poll.

Democrats need to keep turning up the volume and getting their message out to more people.



The alexa.com graph above shows that major Democratic sites like barackobama.com (Organizing for America) and democrats.org (DNC site) have been easily outperforming the Tea Party and RNC sites over the last month.

Targeting swing voters

As the campaign enters high gear with a few weeks before the first contest in Iowa and about six weeks until Super Tuesday, the Obama team is looking to garner more donations and implement its get-out-the-vote (GOTV) drive.

The campaign will also target swing voters, those who are deemed susceptible to persuasion, with their candidate's message.

Generally, one doesn't waste time trying to persuade hardcore supporters of one's opponents. It would not make sense, for example, for Obama supporters to spend days calling and attempting to win over dedicated volunteers from the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Instead, the Obama camp will attempt to identify those voters who haven't made up their minds yet and convince them that Barack is the best candidate. With limited time and resources the campaign must focus its grassroots efforts.

In addition to identifying persuadable voters, Obama's strategists must ascertain what issues are most important to those voters and then craft a message showing the voter why they should choose Obama.

Those swing voters who agree that Obama is the best choice are added to a list of supporters and then targeted for GOTV efforts in the last days before the election.


Election Dates

Iowa Caucus -- Jan. 3, 2008

New Hampshire Primary -- Jan. 8, 2008

Nevada Caucus -- Jan. 19, 2008

South Carolina Primary -- Jan. 26, 2008

Super Tuesday -- Feb. 5, 2008