Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Distilling Demographics

One thing to remember about demographics is that you can not apply the results of the primary to the general election. John McCain is not Hillary Clinton.

One easy example to demonstrate this is Obama's performance in the primary among women. One might be tempted to say that Obama is weak among women just looking at the numbers. However, many women were rightfully excited about having the first viable women candidate for president. If such a strong woman candidate was not in the race, Barack probably would have done much better with this demographic.

So, we can not say that Barack Obama will not do well with women against John McCain.

How about "white working class voters?" Let's remember that most of that demographic in the Democratic primary consisted of Democrats. These Democrats have been compared to "Reagan Democrats" recently suggested they are crossover votes. But do Reagan Democrats really still exist, or have they all become independents?

I think the polls and recent elections indicate that Republicans have to worry much more about their own crossing over to Barack Obama than vice a versa.

Not saying that Obama could not use a speech writer whose specializes in reaching working-class crowds. His words, as in his electrifying speech last night after clinching the nomination, appear to be perceived as a bit high brow by some people. He may need to adjust his talking style to match the audience more effectively to win over the bread and butter crowd.

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