Thinking about Campaign Strategy

After last night's results, I know strongly agree with those pundits who say that Obama will have a hard time winning in state's with strong Democratic establishments, especially those with deep ties to Bill Clinton's administration. After all, the former president helped a lot of people get elected and appointed in those states.

Barack Obama does well in red states and states with strong independent and swing votes. He can also do well in very "liberal" areas that buck the Democratic establishment like the state of Vermont or Barbara Lee's district in Oakland.

Now, Barack still leads in both pledged delegates and overall delegates. He leads by about 132 in pledged delegates depending on which estimate you read and he could increase that if he maintains his lead in the Texas Caucus. A win in that caucus would also put his overall lead in delegates to about 100. Barack also still leads the national popular vote although the Texas Caucus sort of muddles up how to tally that count.

However, the results last night bring to question what strategy should be employed in the upcoming states. Pennsylvania is the biggest prize among those states but it also has a very old school system among the Democratic establishment that is hard to break through. So far they seem to be more supportive to Hillary who has been leading also in the local polls.

Of course, you have to fight in Pennsylvania because you don't want Hillary to run away with such a big state. But how much in terms of resources and time do you commit to that state as opposed to the others?

A lot will depend on an analysis of each of the upcoming states. For example, how many people are still undecided in each state? Are there a lot weak supporters that could be persuaded?

The Obama campaign will have to figure how whether independent and swing voters will be a factor in each state, and how easy it will be to get out the vote. Big states require big resources to turn out voters.

Also, it's all about the pledged delegate count followed in importance of the national popular vote. Winning these pledged delegates and votes means going beyond state strategy to focus on specific districts or counties.

Overall, Obama's team will have to decide on which strategy will reap the most benefits, or return on investment as they say in the corporate world.