Clinton buries Obama for first time in 3Q

After outraising Hillary Clinton in the first quarter to everybody's surprise, and then topping that significantly in the second quarter, many were seeing Barack Obama's money machine as unstoppable.

However, the early third quarter reports are ominous for the Obama campaign. Not only is Hillary leading in the polls, but now she's raising more cash with more donors than the Illinois senator.

What happened to the vaunted grassroots Obama fundraising effort?

Although its impossible to say for sure, I wonder if Obama's militaristic positions expressed in the last quarter might not have turned away many supporters from the Democratic base.

It was in this quarter, through a journal article and a foreign policy speech that Barack for the first time since the start of the campaign clearly stated positions demonstrating his attitudes on preemptive military action and foreign intervention.

Not only did he express such views but he reiterated and clarified them several times to the media. Democrats looking to "turn the page" on this type of policy surely must have been disheartened.

Furthermore, there was the appearance that Obama's foreign policy is largely being driven by advisers of whose views and history we know little. And there also could have been the perception that Obama was modifying his positions to pander to more conservative voters and reverse his flagging poll numbers.

All these factors could have influenced the confidence of supporters that Obama would not lead the country into further possibly even more devastating warfare through a series of "surgical strikes" that could quickly escalate into something bloodier.

Obama's distinction was that he appeared as the choice for voters looking for peace early on, but now he may have lost that edge. If this is true, he will need to replace that highly motivated segment of voters with others that will pick up the slack. Not an easy job with the start of the primary election just three months away.

Of course, the Obama campaign never expected to outraise Hillary in the first place, but once the expectation was created after the first two quarters, this comes as a big letdown. And momentum is very important in politics.

Probably even more important than the gross amount raised is the fact that Hillary had more donors than Barack for the first time.

Today, Obama gives a foreign policy speech in which he will announce a plan to rid the world of all nuclear weapons. While it sounds good, I think many may see it as a purely political attempt at winning back support that he has lost from base voters. Not only confidence but trust has also been lost in my view.

Whether that trust can be regained is a big question. In the meantime, a lot of bandwagon jumpers can be expected to shift toward the Hillary camp.