Barack Obama, rightly or wrongly, may be considered the most progressive of the front-running Democrats. And if you haven't noticed he's also black. Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white.
Black and other minority candidates tend to do better with white voters in regions that have larger minority and immigrant populations, that are well-integrated and with large numbers of urban and progressive voters.
Iowa and New Hampshire don't fit well into any of those categories, although again New Hampshire has become increasingly more progressive.
You might hear some minorities comment that they would feel more comfortable campaigning in southern states that in Iowa and New Hampshire. Because there at least there is familiarity. Yes, there are rednecks who would never consider a non-white candidate, but there also those who have no problem with blacks. Poor whites in the South have often lived side-by-side or at least in adjoining neighborhoods with blacks.
One of the reasons Bill Clinton was so popular with blacks is his empathy with the community as he was raised in Arkansas.
In Iowa and New Hampshire, a minority candidate might feel like they were on the Moon.
Part of Obama's challenge is familiarizing himself with the local voters and taking away some of the strangeness that his skin color presents.
He's doing that now by practically living in Iowa. By January of next year, Obama will want to be as familiar as the guy next door to most Iowans.
