Democrats lose Senate supermajority

Tonight's defeat in the Massachusetts senate race was a big blow to Democrats and the Obama administration. However, it does not necessarily mean the end of the health care reform bill.

The bill is some danger, but most likely some reform will still be passed. There are several options available to Democrats. For example, they House and Senate could possibly reach a super quick compromise and vote for the bill before newly-elected senator Scott Brown is seated. Usually it takes a while before the vote is certified and Democrats could presumably move during this time.

Another option is that the House will simply pass the Senate bill as it stands without any changes. They could agree to seek changes in the future through the process of reconciliation. However, some types of legislation are not allowed for reconciliation so House Dems would have to sacrifice those changes. There is some question as to whether a public option is permitted under the rule ("Byrd Rule") that guides the reconciliation process.

Still another possibility is that they could decide to start from scratch using reconciliation to push through items that qualify under the Byrd Rule. I think this is a rather remote possibility.

What will be more difficult for the Obama administration is to pass any new legislation that they have planned in the future. They could be limited in the types of changes that they want to make. However, the Republicans were able to pass tax cuts using the reconciliation process.

Tonight's defeat was also an ominous sign for the elections in November bringing up the possibility of more losses, or perhaps even losing control of the House.

Obama may need to set down with party leader Tim Kaine, and perhaps invite Howard Dean over to talk about strategy for the upcoming elections.