Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Breaking down the numbers

With Barack Obama's numbers in, we can analyze the data and see who appears in better shape money-wise.

Here are some of the more important numbers released by the Obama campaign today:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/eoqwrap/

Over 100,000 Donors
Over $25,000,000 Raised
Over $23,500,000 for the Primary
Over $50,000 Online Donors
Over $6,900,000 Raised Online
Over 4,000 My.BarackObama.com Groups
Over 9,000 My.BarackObama.com Blogs
Over 50,000 My.BarackObama.com Members

The first thing we notice is that Obama has about twice as many donors as Clinton. Again, this is a positive thing as it likely indicates that Obama has a much larger base of small donors. Probably also having twice as many online donors indicates the same thing.

Obama averaged about $250 per donor, and $138 per online donor. Clinton averaged $520 and $160 respectively.

Many small donors will likely contribute again before the primary dates as they will did not max out this time around. There is even a recurring donations feature at barackobama.com that allows one to make automatic monthly donations at a set amount from one's credit card.

Lower the expected overall numbers

Another thing we notice about this quarter's fundraising reports, is that they came in lower than expert expectations.

According to the forecasts, the Democratic frontrunners would have raised between $40 and $50 million by this time, but they are at about half that amount.

This might be interpreted as meaning that there is limited interest in the presidential race, but polls show exactly the opposite.

Generally the predictions for first quarter earnings are based on known databases of regular donors. Is it possible that many of these regular donors are still sitting on the sidelines unsure of who to support?

If we look at this from the angle of endorsements, it does seem that many elected officials are still pondering over which side to take in this race.

Will Barack Obama's very good numbers help some break toward his campaign? Or will some who donated only to Hillary this time, now donate to Obama to cover their backsides since Hillary is no longer heir-apparent.

It may be that the second quarter reports will be even more important since it may reveal where all those missing donors have gone.



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Obama camp raises $25 million

Barack Obama announced that his campaign had raised $25 million in the first quarter with more than $23 million available for the primary.

The money came from more than 100,000 donations.

This is very good news indeed, but as Obama states in his note below, votes will still come only one person at a time.

---forwarded---

Dear Friend,

Ten weeks ago, on an icy day in Springfield, we launched an audacious campaign to change our politics and lift our country.

Today, I have some exciting news to share about the phenomenal progress we've made. And I wanted you to hear it first.

I'm proud to tell you that, after the first quarter of the campaign, we've exceeded all of our hopes and expectations.

In less than three months, a staggering 100,000 Americans have contributed to our cause -- tens of thousands more than the number reported by any other campaign. That's on top of the hundreds of thousands who have attended rallies, started groups and shared their ideas and energy.

It's been a truly historic response -- a measure of just how hungry people are to turn the page on this era of small and destructive politics and repair our American community.

And because of that extraordinary base of support, we were able to raise an astonishing $25 million -- $23.5 million of which can be used to help us in the upcoming primary contests.

What makes this achievement even more noteworthy is that we did it without taking any money from PACs or federal lobbyists. Instead, we're counting on you; on folks across America who want to take their country back and steer us to a better course.

You've sent an unmistakable message to the political establishment in Washington about the power and seriousness of our challenge.

But for all the impressive numbers by which pundits will judge this campaign, we know that every step of our progress happens one person at a time.

One person sharing their story of why they decided to get involved inthe political process, one volunteer deciding to have a conversation about the campaign with their neighbor, one donor owning a piece of this campaign for as little as $5.

I've been struck by how personal this campaign experience has been for so many of you.

You heard last week from Rashed, a veteran and father who made his first-ever donation to a political campaign because of his hopes for his daughter. This campaign is the story of hundreds of thousands of people like him -- people participating because they believe that politics can mean something again.

We've put together a small presentation about all we've accomplished together so far, and links to a few of the personal stories from people who donated to the campaign or hosted a community get-together this past weekend. You can see it here:

my.barackobama.com/wherewestand

I want to thank you for all that you have done so far. This milestone for our campaign proves something I learned as a community organizer long ago: that together a whole lot of ordinary people can achieve something extraordinary.

And we're only just getting started.

Thank you,

Barack Obama
---


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Live feeds show Obama's community organizing skills

I'm really enjoying these live feeds of Barack Obama meeting with small groups of people to discuss issues and policy. You can really see his years of community organizing experience in these live, unedited broadcasts.







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