Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Breaking down the numbers

With Barack Obama's numbers in, we can analyze the data and see who appears in better shape money-wise.

Here are some of the more important numbers released by the Obama campaign today:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/eoqwrap/

Over 100,000 Donors
Over $25,000,000 Raised
Over $23,500,000 for the Primary
Over $50,000 Online Donors
Over $6,900,000 Raised Online
Over 4,000 My.BarackObama.com Groups
Over 9,000 My.BarackObama.com Blogs
Over 50,000 My.BarackObama.com Members

The first thing we notice is that Obama has about twice as many donors as Clinton. Again, this is a positive thing as it likely indicates that Obama has a much larger base of small donors. Probably also having twice as many online donors indicates the same thing.

Obama averaged about $250 per donor, and $138 per online donor. Clinton averaged $520 and $160 respectively.

Many small donors will likely contribute again before the primary dates as they will did not max out this time around. There is even a recurring donations feature at barackobama.com that allows one to make automatic monthly donations at a set amount from one's credit card.

Lower the expected overall numbers

Another thing we notice about this quarter's fundraising reports, is that they came in lower than expert expectations.

According to the forecasts, the Democratic frontrunners would have raised between $40 and $50 million by this time, but they are at about half that amount.

This might be interpreted as meaning that there is limited interest in the presidential race, but polls show exactly the opposite.

Generally the predictions for first quarter earnings are based on known databases of regular donors. Is it possible that many of these regular donors are still sitting on the sidelines unsure of who to support?

If we look at this from the angle of endorsements, it does seem that many elected officials are still pondering over which side to take in this race.

Will Barack Obama's very good numbers help some break toward his campaign? Or will some who donated only to Hillary this time, now donate to Obama to cover their backsides since Hillary is no longer heir-apparent.

It may be that the second quarter reports will be even more important since it may reveal where all those missing donors have gone.



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