Friday, March 23, 2007

Barack wins DFA Poll, handicappers picking Obama and Giuliani

Candidate Barack Obama won the Dean-inspired Democracy for America poll with 28 percent of the vote compared to John Edwards 25 percent.

Barack Obama 28.1%
John Edwards 24.6%
Other 12.4%
Dennis Kucinich 10.3%
Hillary Clinton 8.7%
Bill Richardson 7.6%
Undecided 4.9%
Joseph Biden 1.9%
Christopher Dodd 0.5%
Mike Gravel 0.3%


Handicappers pick Obama and Giuliani

The Iowa Electronic Markets is a highly successful system that allows people to buy contracts on candidates or political parties as one would on a financial market, or as one would place bets on a sporting event.

The difference between this and a poll, is while the latter is basically a snapshot of the voting public's mood at a specific time, the electronic markets is based on speculations by "investors" on the eventual outcome.

The investors can be experts or anybody else interested in the race.

Here are the results at the time this blog was posted:

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html


CLIN_NOM = Clinton Nomination, and so on.

Market Quotes: DConv08_VS
2008 Democratic Convention Market.

Quotes current as of 13:00:04 CST, Friday, March 23, 2007.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
CLIN_NOM 0.395 0.417 0.395 0.395 0.400 0.398
EDWA_NOM 0.054 0.079 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.055
OBAM_NOM 0.378 0.425 0.410 0.410 0.411 0.410
DROF_NOM 0.137 0.145 0.140 0.136 0.140 0.137

| Prospectus | Price History | Graph |


Market Quotes: RConv08_WTA
2008 Republican Convention Market.

Quotes current as of 13:00:04 CST, Friday, March 23, 2007.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
GIUL_NOM 0.317 0.340 0.319 0.318 0.346 0.321
MCCA_NOM 0.181 0.199 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180
ROMN_NOM 0.206 0.211 0.206 0.206 0.208 0.206
RROF_NOM 0.270 0.395 0.340 0.295 0.340 0.319

| Prospectus | Price History | Graph |


To find information on the accuracy of the Iowa Electronic Markets in past elections, read the pdf file below:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf




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Quarterly fundraising deadline approaches, Obama pastor rips NY Times

Barack Obama is rallying in Las Vegas today and will attend a forum on healthcare with other candidates in that city on Saturday.

On Sunday, the candidate will attend fundraisers in West Palm Beach as all candidates rush to fill their coffers before the March 31 fundraising deadline. Obama wants to show a sizeable war-chest, when campaign finance reports are made public in April.

Obama will at the Atlanta Hyatt on Monday where "several thousand" people are expected to dish out $500 to $2,300 a plate for the candidate. He will return to Atlanta at a later date for a free public rally.

Obama's Pastor fires back at NY Times

Here's the letter from Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr. to Jodi Kantor of The New York Times:


March 11, 2007
Jodi Kantor
The New York Times
9 West 43rd Street
New York,
New York 10036-3959

Dear Jodi:

Thank you for engaging in one of the biggest misrepresentations of the truth I have ever seen in sixty-five years. You sat and shared with me for two hours. You told me you were doing a "Spiritual Biography" of Senator Barack Obama. For two hours, I shared with you how I thought he was the most principled individual in public service that I have ever met.

For two hours, I talked with you about how idealistic he was. For two hours I shared with you what a genuine human being he was. I told you how incredible he was as a man who was an African American in public service, and as a man who refused to announce his candidacy for President until Carol Moseley Braun indicated one way or the other whether or not she was going to run. I told you what a dreamer he was. I told you how idealistic he was. We talked about how refreshing it would be for someone who knew about Islam to be in the Oval Office. Your own question to me was, Didn't I think it would be incredible to have somebody in the Oval Office who not only knew about Muslims, but had living and breathing Muslims in his own family?

I told you how important it would be to have a man who not only knew the difference between Shiites and Sunnis prior to 9/11/01 in the Oval Office, but also how important it would be to have a man who knew what Sufism was; a man who understood that there were different branches of Judaism; a man who knew the difference between Hasidic Jews, Orthodox Jews, Conservative Jews and Reformed Jews; and a man who was a devout Christian, but who did not prejudge others because they believed something other than what he believed.

I talked about how rare it was to meet a man whose Christianity was not just "in word only."

I talked about Barack being a person who lived his faith and did not argue his faith. I talked about Barack as a person who did not draw doctrinal lines in the sand nor consign other people to hell if they did not believe what he believed.

Out of a two-hour conversation with you about Barack's spiritual journey and my protesting to you that I had not shaped him nor formed him, that I had not mentored him or made him the man he was, even though I would love to take that credit, you did not print any of that. When I told you, using one of your own Jewish stories from the Hebrew Bible as to how God asked Moses, "What is that in your hand?," that Barack was like that when I met him. Barack had it "in his hand." Barack had in his grasp a uniqueness in terms of his spiritual development that one is hard put to find in the 21st century, and you did not print that.

As I was just starting to say a moment ago, Jodi, out of two hours of conversation I spent approximately five to seven minutes on...

... Barack's taking advice from one of his trusted campaign people and deeming it unwise to make me the media spotlight on the day of his announcing his candidacy for the Presidency and what do you print?

You and your editor proceeded to present to the general public a snippet, a printed "sound byte" and a titillating and tantalizing article about his disinviting me to the Invocation on the day of his announcing his candidacy.

I have never been exposed to that kind of duplicitous behavior before, and I want to write you publicly to let you know that I do not approve of it and will not be party to any further smearing of the name, the reputation, the integrity or the character of perhaps this nation's first (and maybe even only) honest candidate offering himself for public service as the person to occupy the Oval Office.

Your editor is a sensationalist. For you to even mention that makes me doubt your credibility, and I am looking forward to see how you are going to butcher what else I had to say concerning Senator Obama's "Spiritual Biography."

Our Conference Minister, the Reverend Jane Fisler Hoffman, a white woman who belongs to a Black church that Hannity of "Hannity and Colmes" is trying to trash, set the record straight for you in terms of who I am and in terms of who we are as the church to which Barack has belonged for over twenty years.

The president of our denomination, the Reverend John Thomas, has offered to try to help you clarify in your confused head what Trinity Church is even though you spent the entire weekend with us setting me up to interview me for what turned out to be a smear of the Senator; and yet The New York Times continues to roll on making the truth what it wants to be the truth.

I do not remember reading in your article that Barack had apologized for listening to that bad information and bad advice. Did I miss it? Or did your editor cut it out? Either way, you do not have to worry about hearing anything else from me for you to edit or "spin" because you are more interested in journalism than in truth.

Forgive me for having a momentary lapse. I forgot that The New York Times was leading the bandwagon in trumpeting why it is we should have gone into an illegal war. The New York Times became George Bush and the Republican Party's national "blog." The New York Times played a role in the outing of Valerie Plame. I do not know why I thought The New York Times had actually repented and was going to exhibit a different kind of behavior. Maybe it was my faith in the Jewish Holy Day of Roshashana. Maybe it was my being caught up in the euphoria of the Season of Lent; but whatever it is or was, I was sadly mistaken. There is no repentance on the part of The New York Times. There is no integrity when it comes to The Times. You should do well with that paper, Jodi. You looked me straight in my face and told me a lie!

Sincerely and respectfully yours,
Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr. ,
Senior Pastor
Trinity United Church of Christ





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