Barack wins DFA Poll, handicappers picking Obama and Giuliani

Candidate Barack Obama won the Dean-inspired Democracy for America poll with 28 percent of the vote compared to John Edwards 25 percent.

Barack Obama 28.1%
John Edwards 24.6%
Other 12.4%
Dennis Kucinich 10.3%
Hillary Clinton 8.7%
Bill Richardson 7.6%
Undecided 4.9%
Joseph Biden 1.9%
Christopher Dodd 0.5%
Mike Gravel 0.3%


Handicappers pick Obama and Giuliani

The Iowa Electronic Markets is a highly successful system that allows people to buy contracts on candidates or political parties as one would on a financial market, or as one would place bets on a sporting event.

The difference between this and a poll, is while the latter is basically a snapshot of the voting public's mood at a specific time, the electronic markets is based on speculations by "investors" on the eventual outcome.

The investors can be experts or anybody else interested in the race.

Here are the results at the time this blog was posted:

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html


CLIN_NOM = Clinton Nomination, and so on.

Market Quotes: DConv08_VS
2008 Democratic Convention Market.

Quotes current as of 13:00:04 CST, Friday, March 23, 2007.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
CLIN_NOM	0.395	0.417	0.395	0.395	0.400	0.398
EDWA_NOM	0.054	0.079	0.055	0.055	0.055	0.055
OBAM_NOM	0.378	0.425	0.410	0.410	0.411	0.410
DROF_NOM	0.137	0.145	0.140	0.136	0.140	0.137

| Prospectus | Price History | Graph |

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Market Quotes: RConv08_WTA
2008 Republican Convention Market.

Quotes current as of 13:00:04 CST, Friday, March 23, 2007.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
GIUL_NOM	0.317	0.340	0.319	0.318	0.346	0.321
MCCA_NOM	0.181	0.199	0.180	0.180	0.180	0.180
ROMN_NOM	0.206	0.211	0.206	0.206	0.208	0.206
RROF_NOM	0.270	0.395	0.340	0.295	0.340	0.319

| Prospectus | Price History | Graph |


To find information on the accuracy of the Iowa Electronic Markets in past elections, read the pdf file below:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/BFNR_2000.pdf