Will Barack Obama raise $50+ million?

News sources reported that an Obama aide characterized estimates of $40 million for the candidate's second quarter fundraising as "hysterical." One staff member was reported to have said the campaign would be happy raising $20 million.

Most estimates I've seen recently are in the $32 to $36 million range.

However, it may be that the final figure will be more like $50 to $55 million.

I didn't consult a psychic to figure this out but simply crunched some numbers based on my observations of the campaign over the second quarter.

In the last quarter, Obama raised $25 million from 104,000 donations. He averaged about $247 per donation.

From my observations, there is no reason to believe that the average donation has fallen much. Certainly it could have, and there really is not enough information to say anything certain.

Many Obama supporters did max out in contributions during the first quarter. However, Obama's unexpectedly solid fundraising may have convinced many big rollers, who hesitated initially, that they should cover their bases with Obama.

Late in the second quarter, Barack had his biggest day yet raising more than $1.5 million in Chicago. This indicates that the bundlers still have room to move around in. Indeed, I know of some "deep pockets" here in my own area who want Obama to come to town before maxing on their donations.

The offline fundraising at least appeared to keep pace with the online efforts.

If that's true, and Obama averages about the same per donation as in the first quarter, he would raise about $56 million. That's based on the campaign goal of a year-long 350,000 contributions by the end of this quarter, or about 242,000 donations in the second quarter. So, 242,000 people x $231 equals about 55.9 million.

If we "lowball" this and presume that Obama will average only 90 percent of the average donation last quarter, he will still raise over $50 million.

Of course, the average donation could be much smaller than it was in the previous quarter. However, Barack already had the lowest average donation of the big candidates. In comparision, John Edwards raised an average $350 per donation, and Hillary had $520 per donation.

The Obama team publicly stated today that the average donation this time is "likely" to be less than in the last quarter, which suggests that it could be the same, which suggests that it's probably near that mark already.

To be "conservative" though, I'm going to predict that Obama will make at least $45 million.

We'll know for sure on Jul. 15, and probably before then when the Obama campaign publicly releases its numbers.

Be inspired and be counted:
BarackObama.com/inspire